FXUS64 KFWD 010518
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY
AS THE LOWEST 20K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 AND 2500 FT OVERNIGHT.
A NORTH WIND TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND THEN RAIN
RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
ITS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
TIMING PURPOSES IN THE SHORT AND NEAR TERM FORECAST.
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO NORTH TEXAS.
THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT IN GENERAL THE RAIN SHOULD END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FILTERING INTO NORTH
TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW MIXING WITH
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PREVIOUS AREA OF SNOW MENTION TO A LINE ALONG AND WEST OF
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO LOMETA. ALTHOUGH FREEZING AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THIS AREA AT THE SAME
TIME...THE GROUND AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A BROAD
TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
PENETRATE INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS MEANS THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LOW
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 39 49 38 47 33 / 5 80 100 40 5
WACO, TX 38 49 37 48 33 / 10 90 100 30 5
PARIS, TX 37 53 44 47 29 / 5 50 100 70 5
DENTON, TX 37 47 35 46 30 / 5 80 100 50 5
MCKINNEY, TX 36 50 38 47 31 / 5 70 100 60 5
DALLAS, TX 40 49 39 46 34 / 5 70 100 40 5
TERRELL, TX 40 52 40 47 32 / 5 70 100 50 5
CORSICANA, TX 40 50 43 48 32 / 5 70 100 40 5
TEMPLE, TX 41 48 36 50 32 / 20 90 90 30 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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