FXUS65 KBYZ 142230
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 PM MST MON DEC 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM BILLINGS AND AREAS EAST. THE SNOW WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 5 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR NOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE WARMER
TEMPS...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC PULLS OUT.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT WINDS
AT SUB ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE COLD AIR SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MODELS BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND BRING PRECIP MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A LITTLE
BIT FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD IN THERE.
SO OVERALL...PRECIP WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SOLUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE MONTANA AND WILL FORCE THE ARCTIC
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF ITEMS WORTH NOTHING THOUGH. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BY FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF ONE.
AS THE PERIOD CONTINUES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY START TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY POPS
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL THAT IS NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED TO CREATE SOME POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FALLING AROUND KBIL AND KMLS.
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW NEAR BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS UNTIL THE
SNOW DISSIPATES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT KLVM...WHERE GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH 25 KTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER GUSTS
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH THE FINE SNOW EASILY
BEING PICKED UP BY THE WINDS. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 912/027 024/039 025/040 022/034 022/038 023/030 025/033
30/B 02/W 02/J 11/B 10/B 12/J 21/B
LVM 903/036 031/044 028/038 023/037 025/040 026/030 027/034
20/Q 02/W 03/J 11/B 11/N 12/J 21/B
HDN 913/024 013/038 019/041 017/036 016/040 014/030 016/034
30/B 02/J 02/J 21/B 10/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 917/018 009/032 015/034 014/030 014/033 013/028 015/028
30/B 00/B 02/J 21/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 914/023 011/039 018/039 017/035 016/038 016/029 016/033
30/B 00/B 02/J 21/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 919/015 005/037 015/034 015/027 010/032 010/024 012/025
30/B 00/B 02/J 31/B 11/U 11/U 11/B
SHR 910/029 011/042 018/040 016/034 014/039 014/031 015/034
30/B 00/B 03/J 21/B 10/B 01/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
