FXUS64 KMRX 160905
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
405 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF EAST
COAST AND SETTLED INTO GULF OF MEXICO WITH COLDER DRIER AIR NOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER SOUTHERN STREAM OF MOISTURE
STILL BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS NE FROM MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE THINNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY EDGES CLOSER. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH BY DAWN
WITH HIGHS LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GFS KEEPS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA BUT NAM MODEL
HAS A DRY COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT. PREFERRED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TONIGHT SO FOLLOWED
COLDER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
AREA SLIDES EAST THU/THU NGT. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO GLFMEX AND
ANOTHER BEGINS DIGGING SE INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. SURFACE LOWS START
DEVELOPING CENTRAL GLFMEX AND THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ADVECT INTO SE AREAS FRI/FRI NGT WITH A LOW CHC OF
LIGHT PCPN. SFC LOW MOVES NE THROUGH FL WHILE NW TROF CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. NORTHERN SFC LOW SKIRTS ACROSS N AREAS SAT MORNING WITH
BETTER CHC OF PREFRONTAL PCPN. WARMUP IN ADVANCE OF FRONT BORDERLINE
SO PCPN TYPE WHILE LIKELY BE MIXED BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND
FRONT BY SAT NGT. PCPN AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT. UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SAT NGT. STRENGTH AND POSITION OF ATLC SFC LOW IN DOUBT BUT
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER PACKAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.
REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS COLD. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WITH LONG FETCH
FROM CANADA. LIGHT NW SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES WILL COME AND GO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 28 55 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 26 47 28 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 25 49 28 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 22 46 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD/SON
