FXUS61 KBGM 221754
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WINTRY
MIX WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
TO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AS OF 840 AM...
LES ACTIVITY HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS THERMAL
INVERSION IS FAIRLY LOW (UNDER 900 MB...AS EVIDENCED BY THIS
MORNING'S BUFFALO SOUNDING). FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY AND
PA'S NORTHERN TIER...JUST A FEW FLURRIES ANTICIPATED THE REST OF
THE DAY. A MINOR PLUME DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE MAY STILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SMALL ACCUMULATIONS INTO
SOUTHERN/WESTERN STEUBEN...AND THE SAME MAY OCCUR DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...INTO SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON/CORTLAND/CHENANGO
COUNTIES. AT WORST HERE...WE'RE TALKING AN INCH OR LESS.
ACROSS THE WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS AND THE POCONOS...LOOK FOR
DRY CHILLY WEATHER TODAY...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS...BUT
OVERALL OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHG TO FCST THRU THURSDAY NGT. LK EFFECT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE. UL WV MVG THRU ON WEDNESDAY
WILL INCRS CVRG OF SNOW WITH ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO
INVERSION LOOKS TO LOWER ENUF BY WED NGT TO SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT ANY
LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN TO JUST SLGT CHC POPS. FLOW TURNS NRLY AND
THEN NERLY DRG THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIPRES RIDGE EXTENDING INTO FA.
H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO WRN NY ON THURSDAY AHD OF NEXT
CLOSED LOW MVG THRU CNTRL PLAINS.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP FA DRY THRU AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO WARM ABV FRZG ON THURSDAY WITH 566 HGTS BUILDING INTO NERN U.S.
ALL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING PCPN CONFINED BACK TO THE WEST THRU FRI
MRNG AS HIPRES TAKES HOLD. THUS WILL RMV POPS THRU END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM...BOTH THE 0Z EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE IOWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW...IN FRONT OF THE OCCLUSION
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD OUR AREA
TOWARD MIDDAY. THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP
IN OUR AREA VS. THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH MOST AREAS NOW SEEING
PRECIP AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC. GFS BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT INITIALLY THE PRECIP WOULD FALL AS SLEET OR
RAIN...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A 1035 MB
TO OUR NORTHEAST...THE GFS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. SO DESPITE WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MAY
SUGGEST...MANY AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF PLAIN RAIN. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81.
STILL TOO FAR DOWN THE ROAD TO GET TOO FANCY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ICING EVENT EXISTS.
EVENTUALLY STRONG WAA WILL WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND A CHANGE
TO PLAIN RAIN SEEMS LIKELY ON SATURDAY. IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS THE GFS...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...STILL KEEPS KRME BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH MID MORNING. PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CAA DROPPING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR TO PREVAIL AT AVP AND ELM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN AND MOST OF TNGT...WITH POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES AFTER
10Z. OTRW...PDS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR AT RME/SYR/ITH/BGM IN LAKE
EFFECT -SHSN TNGT AND WED.
PREVAILING FLOW XPCTD TO BE 300-310 TNGT...AND MOST PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR IS XPCTD AT RME/SYR WITH LESSER INFLUENCE AT ITH/BGM.
AS SYNOPTIC MSTR DEEPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...XPCT MORE WDSPRD -SHSN
AND RESTRICTIONS TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY. POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AND
MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AT AVP/ELM TWDS DAYBREAK AS THE SYNOPTIC MSTR
SINKS SWD. WIND GNRLY NWLY 10-20 KTS...WITH G25 THIS AFTN.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU/THU NGT/FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.
SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW.
SUN...MVFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
