FXUS63 KDLH 271657 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.UPDATE...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
WITH TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 30 RIGHT NOW... AND DECREASED SKY COVER A
BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SCATTERED TREND ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER IN IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN NW
WI ALONG WITH THE ARROWHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER BACK IN
DURING MID AFTERNOON...SO WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE FOR A FEW HOURS...WILL BE MORE PARTLY SUNNY LATER IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. /DONOFRIO
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RIDE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE NNW ON SATURDAY AFTER A WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO STRONG...AS MAIN CAA
PUSH WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. /DONOFRIO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
WINDS IN SHORT TERM. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER FA WITH 3 AM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE
IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD AREAS UNDER CLR SKIES...TO MID 20S IN NW
WIS WHERE A LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 2 KFT HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AT THE WRN TIP OF LK SUPERIOR HAS KEPT
THE TWIN PORTS IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 F. IN THE WRN
ZONES...EARLY MORNING READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED FROM THE TEENS..NOT
TO THE LOW 20S DUE TO INCREASING 925 MB WINDS AND LO LVL WAA.
UPR LVL RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING THICKNESS AND
STRENGTHENING WAA TO WRN GRT LKS TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS
WHILE PUSHING EAST OVER MI. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS WARM
FROM NEAR ZERO IN SW ZONES THIS MORNING...TO AROUND 8 C BY THIS
AFTRN AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC-850 MB TROUGH. MDLS IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE CRESTS THE MID LVL RIDGE AND TRACKS EAST OVER SRN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO THIS AFTRN AND EVENING. NO QPF IS EXPECTED WITH
THE PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH OR WEAK SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. /GRANING
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE A MENTION OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL OCCUR AS SFC LOWS CRUISE ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. POPS WARRANTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS FAVORABLE NW WIND/CAA EXPECTED.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FINDS A TRANSITION TO COLDER CONDITIONS AS
ARCTIC AIR FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FA. /GSF
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 27 37 26 / 0 0 10 10
INL 36 25 35 22 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 39 27 39 26 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 38 25 42 23 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 39 27 42 26 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
