FXUS65 KABQ 032200
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST THU DEC 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH
AREAS OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE SHOWS THICK LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCALES FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EASTWARD EXPERIENCED HIGH TEMPS AT MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT...TEMPS NOW
WOULD BE SHATTERING RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS IN MANY AREAS. THE TEMP
AT LAS VEGAS HAS BEEN 10 TO 11 DEGREES ALL AFTERNOON...MORE LIKE
SOMETHING FROM THE ARCTIC. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW
THE BASE OF THE VORT MAX SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH NM NOW WITH MOST
OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW POSITIONED OVER THE SE PLAINS. SNOW IS
NOW IN THE CHAVES AND LINCOLN COUNTY AREA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MANY LOCALES IN THE EAST HAVE
RECEIVED HIGH END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS AND THIS TREND WILL ALSO
AFFECT LINCOLN AND SW CHAVES COUNTY. WILL KEEP HIGHLIGHTS AS IS...
HOWEVER MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS
AND LINCOLN COUNTY AFTER 6AM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20F
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE 700MB TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY MORNING...STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY
AIR...AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. NORTHERN/WESTERN VALLEY LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH
-15F WITH EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
ZONAL FLOW STRENGTHENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR MODERATING
TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
MADE SOME MODEST CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED TO LINE UP WITH LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. IT DOES APPEAR NOW THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY THROUGH
AS LATE AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL FALL AND WHERE THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SINCE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY HIGH SPREAD STILL AT 500MB. BEST CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME IS OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN FOR TUESDAY.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
GENERAL...VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED THE MOST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KONM
TO KCVS LINE IN A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOW CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND KROW.
EAST CANYON WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KABQ THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST...NEAR KFMN AND KGUP...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SAW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
TODAY...AND GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SOME AREAS NOT MAKING IT
OUT OF THE TEENS...MOST OF THE SNOW HAS REMAINED ON THE GROUND. SOME
SNOW HAS FALLEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS...INTO THE SOCORRO AND
ALBUQUERQUE AREAS AS WELL AS AROUND MOUNT TAYLOR...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN ONE INCH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD ROOSEVELT COUNTY
THIS EVENING...BUT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXCELLENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
BELOW ZERO DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHILE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...ABOVE ZERO...WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY DESPITE
MORE SUNSHINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. NONETHELESS...DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE POOR ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VALUES ACROSS THE EAST.
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MINUS FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY THANKS TO A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM ON SATURDAY...BUT SNOW COVERED AREAS WILL
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION...AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. 34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 3 33 4 43 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... -2 29 -2 39 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ -2 30 1 42 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... -4 35 -2 45 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ -3 31 3 44 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... -2 35 0 48 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 2 33 5 50 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 19 45 11 49 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... -9 23 -10 34 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... -1 29 8 42 / 30 0 0 0
PECOS........................... -1 25 7 39 / 50 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -9 27 -8 36 / 40 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... -10 18 -14 30 / 50 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -12 21 -12 33 / 50 5 0 0
TAOS............................ -4 28 -8 38 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 3 35 3 42 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 2 29 8 39 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 5 31 9 41 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 12 32 15 42 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 15 35 16 43 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 15 36 8 43 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 14 35 19 44 / 30 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 10 38 6 46 / 30 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 14 35 18 45 / 30 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 14 37 11 46 / 50 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... -1 28 7 41 / 60 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 6 31 7 42 / 60 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 5 29 13 38 / 80 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 9 30 13 41 / 70 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 12 33 17 47 / 70 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 9 28 15 40 / 90 30 0 0
CAPULIN......................... -4 32 12 44 / 20 5 0 0
RATON........................... -2 32 6 46 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... -1 30 13 44 / 60 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 4 37 17 44 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 6 32 18 46 / 30 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 7 36 15 47 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 13 34 20 45 / 70 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 7 35 18 47 / 50 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 15 35 19 47 / 70 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 15 35 19 46 / 70 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 13 34 17 46 / 70 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 20 32 17 45 / 70 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 17 34 14 46 / 90 30 0 0
ELK............................. 14 33 19 45 / 90 40 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ535>538.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-518-521>524-526>534-539-540.
&&
$$
GUYER/34
