FXUS61 KOKX 070118
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
818 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE 
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL CWA. THIS IS BEING
FORCED DYNAMICALLY WELL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST.

THE CLOUDS PRESENT FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR RADIATIONAL 
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE SUFFOLK PINE BARRENS. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN DROPPING...AND UPDATES PERFORMED TO CAPTURE THIS.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS MOVE IN...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RESPOND.

HAVE FORECAST A LOW NEAR GUIDANCE AT KFOK...BUT OCCURRING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN HAVE TEMPS OVER THE PINE BARRENS RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LATEST MAV/S AND LAV/S STILL FORECAST UPPER TEENS FOR KFOK.

LAST ITEM FOR THIS EVENING IS BLACK ICE IN NORTHERN PASSAIC INTO 
ORANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER EXISTS. LOWS HERE IN THE UPPER 
TEENS MEANS ICY CONDITIONS - HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATED 
SURFACES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BEING ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE PASSES REGION MONDAY EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING. NWP SYSTEMS ARE IN
CONCURRENCE OF KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA DRY AND HAVE THUS DELETED
MENTION OF PCPN. 

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT EVENT ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ALL APPEAR TO HAVE LITTLE SPREAD WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...PARENT SFC LOW (970'S HPA) TRACKS
ACROSS MICHIGAN AS TRIPLE POINT PASS OVER NYC LATE WEDNESDAY. 

ONSET TIMING IS FORECAST FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS AND THEN QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. 

P-TYPE IS AN ISSUE FOR THE INTERIOR (ALL RAIN FOR COAST AND NYC METRO).
THE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT WITH SOME SLEET
POTENTIAL - DO NOT FORESEE ZR (NO DAMMING FROM THE HIGH). NW
AREAS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY MORNING RUSH...THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES BEFORE WE CHANGE TO RAIN?
BASED ON QPF...THE BULK OF WHICH FALLS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...THINK
THAT SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR ORANGE COUNTY WITH THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE
EAST (I.E. CT) QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN.

MOS BLENDS FOR TEMPS WERE USED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LASTLY...LOOKS LIKE ONE TIDE CYCLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND WITH SOME MINOR EROSION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS 
NORTH INTO CANADA. PRECIP MAY END AS SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY 
OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST COLD AIR FILTERS 
IN AT THE SFC. BLUSTERY AND COLD AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...WITH 
UNSEASONABLY BRISK TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS
HIGH TRACKS EAST MONDAY. W/NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS DIMINISHES TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SW
MONDAY MORNING...UNDER 10 KTS AS HIGH MOVES EAST. MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH SCT CU POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
WED...SUB-VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY GALE WEDNESDAY AM WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY GALES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT QPF WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH OF LIQUID
QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST/PW
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JST/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JST