FXUS64 KBMX 050934
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AT THIS HOUR...SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW INDICATED ON RADAR ARE
QUICKLY EXITING STAGE RIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY BE PRESENT FOR
AN HOUR OR SO IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
HAVEN'T HEARD OF ANY TRAVEL ISSUES OR REPORTS OVER ONE HALF INCH
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS HOUR. FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE HEARING OF
ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR SO ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES NORTHEAST.
TURNING THE ATTENTION TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK
WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS EXTREMELY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COME THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE COULD EVEN SEE THE THREAT FOR A STRONG
STORM OR TWO LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT THE TEMPS TO TURN MUCH COLDER AS
THIS SNOWY SYSTEM LEAVES A MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS
DIVING DOWN INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS THE FIRST OF THREE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEST POPS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS
TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE
MINIMAL SIDE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT EVERYONE SEEING RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL INDEED BE MUCH STRONGER AS IT DIVES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TURNS
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISS RIVER VALLEY...AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL AGAIN BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TOUGH FORECAST...AS A SIGNIFICANT WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL MAKE
THE PROSPECTS OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER CHALLENGING. AT THIS
POINT...BEST FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO BEGIN ERODING THE WEDGE EFFECT AWAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
THOSE MESOSCALE DETAILS...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WITH THESE POINTS IN MIND...WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS LATE TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING'S HWO
OUTLOOK.
BEYOND THIS SECOND SYSTEM...A THIRD...WEAK SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...GIVING US YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AS -RA AND SOME -SN FILTERING IN FROM
THE W/SW INTO C AL. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LESS CHANCE OF -SN AS WE GO S...IE MGM...EVEN LESSOR CHANCE
FOR TOI AS THEY SHOULD BE WARMER. MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS BY MID MORNING
MAINLY.
08
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 40 21 51 38 48 / 20 0 10 20 50
ANNISTON 41 25 55 38 54 / 10 0 10 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 44 26 54 41 51 / 10 0 10 30 50
TUSCALOOSA 45 26 53 39 54 / 0 0 0 40 50
CALERA 45 29 55 39 52 / 0 0 10 30 50
AUBURN 44 29 53 39 55 / 0 0 10 10 40
MONTGOMERY 46 27 54 39 58 / 0 0 0 10 50
TROY 46 24 55 39 59 / 0 0 10 10 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-MARENGO-PERRY-DALLAS-BIBB-
CHILTON-AUTAUGA-ELMORE-COOSA-SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-TALLAPOOSA-
RANDOLPH-CLEBURNE-CALHOUN-ST CLAIR-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE.
&&
$$
17/08
