FXUS61 KBTV 281928
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH ONLY A FEW LEFT OVER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO SYNC
FORECAST GRIDS UP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SFC
OBS. SFC LOW OF 977MB CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK AND STEADILY
MOVING EAST. REGION IS STILL IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN FREQUENT 30-45MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE WIND ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH 7PM...BUT LIKELY WILL BE TAKING THAT DOWN AT SOME
POINT THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR HIGHEST GUSTS I'VE SEEN HAVE BEEN
52MPH AT STOWE...50MPH AT COLCHESTER REEF AND 48MPH HERE AT BTV.
HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
W/SOME POWER OUTAGES. WILL SOON ISSUE A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS.
AS FOR PRECIP...RADAR SHOWING STUFF DRYING UP VERY QUICKLY.
PERHAPS ONLY SOME LIGHT STUFF ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE VT.
HAVE KEPT IN SMALL POPS IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ADIRONDACKS. NO ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
WE ARE CURRENTLY PUTTING TOGETHER A LIST OF ALL SNOW REPORTS AS
WELL. AS EXPECTED...IT WAS A HIGHLY ELEVATIONAL EVENT...AND
REALLY NEEDED TO GET ABOVE 1500FT BEFORE ANY SORT OF
ACCUMULATION. IT WAS A WET SNOW TOO...AND WITH THE WINDS...THAT
HAS LIKELY HELPED TAKE DOWN BRANCHES AND TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEAK RIDGING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APRCHS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCRG CLDS WITH SNOW/RAIN SHWRS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHUD BE LIGHT...AS QPF THRU 12Z MONDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS FOR STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF STORM IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. GFS BRINGS TRACK OF LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH
WOULD BRING OUR FORECAST AREA MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE LOW TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE COLD AIR AND GIVE US MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT...DAYS 6
AND 7...THEREFORE DID NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POPS AS MANY THINGS CAN
AND WILL CHANGE BEFORE THEN. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEN WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK IF THE FLOW TURNS SW ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY
IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS...THOUGH STILL GUSTING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
AFFECTED OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS CONTINUING TO PULL
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST GRADIENT IS MOVING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BECOME BKN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE
TO AROUND 6-10KTS OUT OF THE WEST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. CEILINGS AND VISBY WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM BUT SHOULD BE
AFFECTED BY A LARGE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
