FXUS61 KBTV 020107
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG AND WET STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
RAIN AND WIND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST TUESDAY...WEAK MID LVL S/W WITH SOME LLVL
MOIST/LIFT MVG THRU FA THIS AFTN WITH SOME WDLY SCT -SHSN AND
THIS WL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS.
THEREAFTER...SOME FLAT RIDGING MVG ACRS FA WL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER
AIR AND PRTL CLRG OVRNGT. MDL TMPS ALL LOOK SMLR...AOB 32F OVRNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH TO S AND RIDGING ALOFT WL
DELIVER A SUNNY...PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WX MAKER WITH
TMPS ARD 10F ABV NORMAL. BY LATE AFTN...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
MVG OFFSHORE FOR DVLPG RETURN FLOW WITH INCRSG HIGH CLDS.
WED NGT-THU: MDLS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH AN INLAND TRACK ACRS
NY...SOMEWHERE BTWN W OF KART AND KGFL BY 12Z THU. THEREFORE...
PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.
HWVR...EXACT TRACK WL DICTATE HVST QPF AND GREATEST HIGH WIND THREAT
WITH THE NAM WESTERN TRACK BRINGING HVST RAIN ACRS NY AND HIGH WIND
THREAT ACRS VT. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SE WITH A TRACK THRU
CAPITAL DISTRICT-SRN VT FOR HVST QPF ACRS MUCH OF FA AND DIMINISHING
WND THREAT. IN ADDITION...NAM BRINGS 50S ACRS FA WITH 30S-L40S FOR
GFS.
ECMWF/SREF AND ENSEMBLES SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS AND CLIMO FAVORS A
TRACK ALG/S OF ST LWRNC VLY AND THUS WILL DO THE SAME WITH THIS
FCST.
PTYPE - SFC TMPS IN NE KNGDOM MAY BE NR FRZG IN ISOLD SPOTS AT
ONSET BUT DON/T FEEL ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST.
QPF THREAT - EXACT HVST QPF AXIS STL UNCERTAIN AS MENTIONED
ABV...BUT GENERAL 0.75-1.5 INCHES LKLY. HEADWATER GUIDANCE IS IN
THE 2+ INCH VICINITY FOR MUCH OF MY FA AND ATTM FEEL WE SHOULD STAY
UNDER BUT LOTS OF PONDING AND WE WILL SEE SGNFCT RISES IN AREA
RIVERS.
HIGH WIND THREAT - DEPENDING ON MDL CHOICE WL BE THE AXIS OF LLVL
JET. NAM BRINGS LLVL JET OF 70+ KTS ACRS FA AT 2-4K FT WITH A SE
COMPNENT FOR PSBL DOWNSLOPE AND HIGH ELEVATION EVENT. MEANWHILE...
OTHER MDLS HAVE WEAKER LLVL JET ACRS FA WITH AXIS FURTHER E THUS SOME
GUSTY WNDS PERHAPS TO 35 KTS...AND THAT/S WHERE I/M LEANING ATTM.
ALSO...STG WNDS ARE A BRF 3-6 HR WINDOW AND LKLY OCCURRING DRG TIME
OF HVST PCPN THUS MORE STABILIZING FACTOR. PLENTY OF TIME AND MORE
FCSTRS/MDLS TO DIGEST TO TRY TO DEFINE BETTER.
HEAVIEST/STEADIEST PCPN OVR BY MID MRNG THU WITH SCT -SHRA THREAT
THU AFTN AS SFC LOW DEPARTS FA. NAM HAS FA IN WRM SECTOR AND GFS
KEEPS SE OF FA. AGAIN...SPLIT THE DFRNC WITH L40S IN ST LWRNC VLY TO
L50S IN SRN VT.
CAA LATE THU INTO THU NGT WITH SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA/-SHSN THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 217 PM EST TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FCST FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD WILL FEATURE FOR MANY A WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MORE
TYPICAL LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER CONDS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY ALL
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE SOLNS SUPPORT A
LARGE INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES DURING THIS PERIOD INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND. CAVEAT
HOWEVER IS THAT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY
AS MEAN ZONAL FLOW KEEPS ANY STRONGER SYSTEMS SUPPRESSED EITHER WELL
SOUTH OR OFFSHORE OF OUR REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR OROGRAPHIC SHSN
LIKELY IN TYPICAL AREAS...ESP IN OUR LK ONTARIO SNOWBELTS...BUT
AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THIS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. BEST CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD ACCUM LIGHT SNOWS APPEARS TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM'S
MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY SPARK A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW HERE...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL UPPER
SUPPORT ARGUE FOR CHC POPS ONLY ATTM. OTW EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN
GENERALLY 3-6 DEG BELOW EARLY DEC NORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
AS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS RUN FROM -7C TO -12C.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH EXCEPTIONS OF KSLK AND KMSS TONIGHT. LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND WHILE VFR UNRESTRICED
IN MOST SITES...UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT KSLK ARE BRINGING CEILINGS
DOWN TO LOW MARGINAL. SOME BR ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KSLK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SATELLITE INDICATES AN AREA OF RELATIVE
CLEARING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS
CLEARING HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
KMSS FOR SOME MIST AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. THOUGH MOS DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH IF ANY FOG AT KMSS...ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT TREND TO
CONTINUE AT KMSS WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z.
THEREAFTER...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS AFTER 13Z WED UNDER
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. SSW WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KT
TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS/KSLK TERMINAL.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW...ESP EAST.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR THOUGH W/OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE
SHSN...MAINLY AT THE KSLK TERMINAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
11/30/2009 XXXX
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...AMF/JMG
CLIMATE...
