FXUS61 KOKX 110205
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST TONIGHT ON BRISK WESTERLY 
WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED...RESULTING IN 
LITTLE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. 

WITH MID AND UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CAA...EXPECT WINDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GENERALLY
FALL SHORT...WILL LEAVE UP DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS.

SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS EVENING DYING OFF IN WAKE OF FIRST
SHORTWAVE...THEN A SECOND ROUND POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHEARING TO THE NORTH. SOME SOUND EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH FORK OF LI AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

VERY CHILLY NIGHT. BLENDED MET/MAV AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH 
UNDERCUTS MOS BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CAA ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. 

COLD AIR PREVAILS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS BRISK WEST 
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FEEL STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLE 
FRIDAY...AND WOULD EXPECT WIND ADVISORY TO BE MET NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA...SO GUSTY WINDS 
BEGIN TO ABATE BY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...WIND AND COLD THE RULE 
THROUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN...BLENDED MOS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH 
UNDERCUTS THE MOS BY A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLDEST DAY 
IS FRIDAY...THEN A SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH JUST HOW
CLOSE THE LOW TRACK TO THE COAST. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
INDICATING IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR ALL RAIN TO OCCUR...EXCEPT FAR NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS WHERE
IT COULD START AS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. AS THE LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE PRECIP TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW.

THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. 

MODELS THEN DIFFER IN HOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS 
HANDLED...BOTH IN TIMING AND PHASING (OR LACK OF). WHERE AND WHEN 
RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN...MAKING 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ECMWF AND GGEM 
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM LOW 
AFFECTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARDS A 
STRONGER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND PASSING OVER OR 
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT BE MAKING MANY 
CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD AND MIXED PRECIP TYPE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WITH RAIN 
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR NEXT 24+ HOURS WITH JUST STRONG WEST WINDS TO CONTEND WITH.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO AIRPORTS MAY DECREASE BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z AND GUSTS COULD EVEN TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE...BUT THEY PICK BACK
UP BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHC OF A FLURRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY FROM NYC AND TERMINALS
TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE... 
FRI NGT-SAT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING. 
SAT NIGHT...VFR.
SUN-SUN NGT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH SUN NGT WITH A
CHC OF MIXED PCPN TO RA COAST WITH SN TO A MIX INTERIOR. 
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. 
TUE...SUB VFR POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR POURS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 
SEAS REMAINS ROUGH...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS AS WESTERLY FETCH 
PERSISTS...AND KEPT SEAS A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT 
AS IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW.

WILL END GALES ACROSS WESTERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...THEN CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY 
WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

EXPECT LOW WATER ISSUES WITH NEXT TWO LOW TIDE CYCLES ACROSS THE 
LONG ISLAND SOUND. FRIDAY/S LOW TIDES COULD BE A PROBLEM ACROSS 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS AND NY HARBOR AS STRONG WEST WINDS PUSH
WATER OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH QUIET 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL THEN UNFOLD FROM SUNDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS DURING 
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BY WED. 

THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE IF THE LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW ANY RIVERS/STREAMS
TO RECEDE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ072>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ006.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$