FXUS61 KOKX 280237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD AND UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF PCPN HAS ALL BUT CLEARED FAR EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN.

MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH...WILL BE AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE 21Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THIS
LOW DOWN TO 982 MB. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL WIND
ADVISORY EVENT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING ON SAT. WHILE WINDS OF 50 TO 60
DEVELOP ALOFT...THE BASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DESCENDS TO
AROUND 925 MB AT THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST VERTICAL WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP IT RIGHT
AROUND THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE SAT MORNING AND AFT...BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH. THUS...CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH NOONTIME
SAT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT.
HIGH WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVEL WITH HIGHS NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH 
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUN. WEST WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SW LATE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
ON SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH 
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LONGEST BREAK LATER TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE.

SOME COLDER AIR DOES MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE 
LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER 
HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FCST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.

MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG
W-NW FLOW...RANGING FROM 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS...AND WILL BE 35-40
KT AFTER 05Z SAT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...AND WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS
BY SAT EVENING.

WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES LEFT OF 310 THROUGH ABOUT 
05Z BEFORE SETTLING ON 270-290 DEGREES.

WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT LIFTS UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING...VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST. GALES DEVELOP AL WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND DURING THE MORNING SAT. AS SUCH...GALE WARNING REMAINS.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATER ON SUN WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND
TO THE SW LATE IN THE DAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE 
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT 
LEVELS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT. THE FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. SEAS REMAIN AT SMALL 
CRAFT...AND AGAIN SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY BE NEARING SMALL 
CRAFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 
2 TO 3 FT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF WESTERN LI...NY HARBOR...AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO LOW WATER
BENCHMARKS. THUS...A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE SAT MORNING AND AFT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ338-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/DW/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...