FXUS64 KMEG 240006 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
EVENING...AND TO IOWA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
HANDLED BY A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS EXCEPT FOR
SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING AT LOW SPOTS. SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PURE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
WRAPPING IN COLD AIR AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK PROVING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
SWC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE.
EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE TO IFR GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LIFR CIGS ARE IFFY AT BEST GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP THINGS AOA 005. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS BY 24/12Z...AND 35 KNOTS BY 18Z. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...THERE COULD BE
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG IT WHICH MAY ASSIST IN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45-50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
VEER SOUTHWEST AFTER FROPA. WIND SHEAR EXPECTED UNTIL FROPA WITH
50-60 KNOTS NEAR 1500 FT.
AS FOR PRECIP...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MUCH OF
EAST ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THINK MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL
NORTHWEST OF KTUP UNTIL AFTER 24/12Z BUT WILL AT LEAST KEEP VCSH
THERE. THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN INCREASING FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE COLD FRONT KICKS RAPIDLY EAST
THURSDAY. THUS...MENTIONED STRAIGHT SHRA IN TAFS AT KJBR/KMEM AND
LEFT LIGHT QUALIFIER OUT. DIDN/T WANT TO LITTER THINGS WITH TEMPO
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL HONE IN ON TIMING
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS THINGS PLAY OUT. BEST THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MS RIVER TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 57 34 42 / 100 100 50 10
MKL 50 58 35 40 / 90 100 60 10
JBR 50 53 33 39 / 100 100 40 10
TUP 51 62 37 44 / 60 100 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
