FXUS66 KSGX 080529
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND CHILLY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL BRING VARIABLE CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
RAIN AND SNOW WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE SAN DIEGO RIVER APPEARED TO HAVE
CRESTED AROUND 10 FEET AT FASHION VALLEY A LITTLE BEFORE 900
PM...FLOOD STAGE IS 11.3 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO
2 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST LOW-ELEVATION TOTAL WAS BARONA...NORTHEAST OF EL
CAJON...AT 2.60 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTAL IN OUR AREA WAS AT LAKE
CUYAMACA IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AT 4.89 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL REPORT APPEARS TO BE 14 INCHES AT PINE COVE IN RIVERSIDE
COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE MTNS NOW IS BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...HIGHEST GUSTS WERE AROUND
5 PM WITH 61 MPH AT LYONS PEAK NEAR DULZURA AND 59 MPH AT CABRILLO
NATL MNMT...AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE...AND SOME OTHER
MINOR DAMAGE...HAVE COME IN...ESPECIALLY SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
THE STRONG SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE. 850-MB WINDS OF 60 KNOTS ARE MODELED BY THE
NAM TO CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z TUE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY...SO MTN WAVE
ACTION DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND COULD BRING THESE WINDS
TO THE SURFACE ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS UNTIL
ALMOST SUNRISE TUESDAY. THEN ON TUE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COLD DUE TO SUBZERO 850 MB TEMPS LASTING OVER MOST
AREAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT...THOUGH MOSTLY FOR THE MTNS/DESERTS AS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE W OF THE MTNS AND MAY MODIFY TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
WHERE SNOW COVER OCCURS...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE COOP MOS
VALUES...AND SINGLE DIGIT MINS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN THE BIG BEAR
AREA AND WRIGHTWOOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGINS AND SHOULD ARRIVE
SOMETIME THU. LATEST INDICATIONS IS THAT THIS WILL BE OF MODERATE
INTENSITY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING SOMEWHERE AROUND 1/4" TO
1/2" AND SHOULD BE RATHER STRATIFORM DUE TO DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SW FLOW AROUND 20-30 KNOTS AT 850 MB COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
OROGRAPHICS TOO. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PLACING US AT THE SOUTH END OF
A MORE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER
WARM SYSTEM WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
THAN AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THIS STORM...BUT MOST
LIKELY...LOW-ELEVATION RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE THAT WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
080400Z...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3K FT MSL WITH LAYERS TO 10K FT
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED WITH OCCASIONAL BROKEN TUESDAY WITH
BASES AROUND 3-4K FT MSL. VSBY ABOVE 7SM EXCEPT 3-5SM IN SHOWERS.
MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
080400Z...STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL BECOME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10
PM... CONTINUING UNTIL 7AM TUESDAY MORNING. A LARGE WEST NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE WAVES
UP TO AROUND 10 FT. THE LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SWELL WILL BE UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE INNER WATER TO 7
TO 8 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE A FACTOR.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.
GALE WARNING/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWWSGX.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXCFWSGX.
RIVER STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO RIVER...SEE LAXRVSSGX.
RAINFALL SUMMARY...SEE LAXRRMSGX.
PEAK WIND SUMMARY...SEE LAXPNSSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...WHITLOW
