FXUS66 KEKA 071115
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. EXPECT SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY WEEKS END.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD TEMPS AND RESULTANT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE TOUGHEST FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST...AND THIS LOOKS TO VERIFY AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DIP AOB 30 DEGREES AS OF 3 AM. ONE MORE NIGHT OF CLEAR 
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL BELOW
FREEZING UP AND DOWN THE NORTH COAST. YET ANOTHER WARNING LOOKS
LIKELY FOR ZONES 1 & 2 ON TUE MORNING...BUT INSTEAD OF COMPLICATING
MATTERS BY PUTTING OUT A WATCH...WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE
THAT FINAL DETERMINATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND MOVES
TO THE SE...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY MENDOCINO
COUNTY. THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
MAY FALL DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE CELLS...MAINLY ABOVE
500 FT MSL. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING WORKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TUE MORNING. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON TUE...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE DRY.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE CHANGE TO A WETTER PATTERN. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE HOLDING EVEN LONGER WITH THE FIRST STORM
TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE ON THU. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY WE HOLD HOLD ONTO RESIDUAL POPS...BUT WE WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THEY NEED TO BE PULLED UNTIL AT LEAST FRI. DESPITE
ALL THE MODEL DIFFICULTY...WETTER WX IS STILL EXPECTED...IT JUST
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED...NOW LOOKING LIKE NEXT WEEKEND. JCA

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IN THE NEPAC WILL RESULT IN A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHORTER
PERIOD WAVES BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND SEAS LOOK TO BE MIXED AND
UNSETTLING AS A RESULT. DJB

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH 
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE KACV/KCEC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. 
ISOLD -SHRASN AND BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KUKI THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ001.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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