FXUS62 KFFC 031002
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS AND LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOW THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THE
RAIN WITH IT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FASTLY APPROACHING NW GA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL MAKE FOR COOL...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF...BUT THIS TIME TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN... AND SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE
AND RAIN SPREADING UP OVER THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
DOWN FROM THE NE. THE STABLE...COOL RAIN WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN LIFTING OFF TO THE NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. BOTH NAM AND GFS
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NORTH GA...BUT COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA BY 6 AM SATURDAY. RELATIVELY
WARM WET GROUNDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR
GRASSY SURFACES. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SATURDAY MORNING SNOW TO TURN BACK TO RAIN BY NOONISH...BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTH GA ZONES...SINCE IT
SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN...TURN TO SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO RAIN
BEFORE ITS ALL OVER. OVERALL...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
TO AVERAGE FROM MAYBE 1/2 INCH NORTH TO AN INCH OR LESS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...SO NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...SO USED A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO NW GA LATE
ON MONDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET COULD COMBINE TO SPARK A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY
MENTION SHOWERS FOR NOW AS INSTABILITIES ARE MINIMAL...AND ITS TOO
FAR OUT FOR ANY CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS RUNNING 1500-3000 FT DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WNW
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 KTS POSSIBLE. BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 36 50 38 44 / 0 0 10 70 70
ATLANTA 52 36 49 36 42 / 0 0 5 70 70
BLAIRSVILLE 47 34 46 37 37 / 5 0 5 50 70
CARTERSVILLE 51 33 49 34 40 / 0 0 5 50 70
COLUMBUS 57 38 52 40 46 / 0 0 10 70 50
GAINESVILLE 52 37 49 35 40 / 0 0 10 70 70
MACON 61 35 54 41 49 / 0 0 10 70 70
ROME 53 37 51 35 42 / 0 0 5 50 70
PEACHTREE CITY 53 34 49 36 42 / 0 0 5 70 70
VIDALIA 64 40 55 42 51 / 0 0 20 70 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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