FXUS63 KABR 251539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
939 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. THE
TROWAL HAS MANAGED TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR TO THE SFC SO TEMPS
IN THE EAST ARE BACK IN THE 20S. THEREFORE TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS
AND HOURLY GRIDS. EVERYTHING ELSE IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. MAY
NEED TO BUMP SNOW AMOUNTS UP A LITTLE LATER AS SOME OF THE MORNING
REPORTS HAVE COME IN A BIT HIGH...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF DRYING
TO THE EAST THAT MAY EVEN THINGS OUT. SO WILL LEAVE SNOW TOTAL GRIDS
ALONE FOR NOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LESS THAN QUARTER MILE VIS
ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOWER VIS
AND HIGHER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT FAR EASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AND MIDWAY THROUGH EVENT THINGS
UNFORTUNATELY HAVE HELD TOGETHER. HAVE SEEN SNOW BAND VISBY
GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 MILE...ALONG WITH A STEADY INCREASE
IN WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEEK DURING THE DAY...TOPPING OFF AS
45-50KT SPEED MAX IN THE LOWEST 5KFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT VERY SLOWLY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT
OF OVERALL SYSTEM. THUS WINDS WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND..WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH CURRENT HEADLINE. AS
FOR SNOWFALL INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME...GUIDANCE
PINWHEELS SEVERAL FEATURES BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF ASSOCIATED LIFT. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THAT DENDRITIC
GROWTH BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE EARLY SUNDAY...AND THUS AN END TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS FOR SNOW TOTALS...VERY DRY AIRMASS AT THIS
TIME WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS...HOWEVER COULD SEE THESE
DROP IN THE EAST WITHIN THE WARMER AIR OF THE TROWAL. WILL KEEP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH
SUCH STRONG WINDS...ACCUMULATION WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY DRIFTS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AS A MEAN WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWS
FOR CONTINUED TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS PROG A
COUPLE DIFFERENT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND THUS MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES
LOOK PRETTY LOW. MEANWHILE UNDER GENERAL TROFFING
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND THE
VAST/FAIRLY DEEP SNOW COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPOSITED OVER
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY SHOULD ENHANCE THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND LOWERED VSBYS.  

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN