FXUS62 KMHX 301834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
134 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W TUESDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...LIFTING
A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE W FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL CROSS THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKS LIKE DECENT BAND OF SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA. EXPECT
RAINFALL TO AVG OUT AROUND 1/4 INCH N TO 1/10 INCH S. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH RAPID DRYING/CLEARING EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND CAA THINK LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
UPR 30S/LOWER 40S DEEP INLAND TO MID/UPR 40S OBX. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE AND
SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TUE WITH HIGHS
55 TO 60. TUE N WILL START OUT MCLR WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE...SHLD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INIT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S OBX. 

RAPID CHANGES WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W
LATER WED. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE
REGION BY WED EVENING. STRONG ISENT LIFT DEVELOPS FROM S TO N WED
AFTN AND WILL SEE SHRA BECOME NUMEROUS BY WED EVENING. WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU LOOKS TO BE MOST ACTIVE AS STRONG LOW LVL JET
MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL COOL SEASON EVENT WITH
STRONG FORCING/SHEAR WITH LIMITED INSTAB. FOR NOW KEPT MENTION OF
TSRA IN ALL AREAS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORN COAST. IF GET ENOUGH
INSTAB WILL HAVE DEFINITE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LOW LVL JET AOA 60
KTS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH QPF
TOTALS RANGING FROM 3/4 OF AND INCH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED WIND ADVRY...ESPCLY CST...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW
LVL JET. SHRA/POSS TSRA WILL END FROM W TO E THU MORN AS DRIER AIR
SURGES IN AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN WELL TO THE N. WILL BE VERY MILD
IN WARM SECTOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWER 60S MOST SPOTS...SHLD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S THU DESPITE SOME CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...MAINLY QUIET AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH UPR TRF CROSSING. 12Z GFS SHOWS SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR CST LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF UPR TRF WITH
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. MOST OTHER MDLS KEEP THE LOW AND ASSOC
PRECIP FURTHER OFFSHORE. ADDED A SLIGHT POP CSTL WTRS LATE FRI
NIGHT EARLY SAT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TOM GET ABOVE 50....OTHERWISE
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND
TO LOWER/MID 40S OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OVER RAH'S CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY
THICKENING OVER THE MHX CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A
4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS
EVENING TO AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT AND
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PSBL
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS. STRONG S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WEDS NIGHT AND THURS. COLD...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN LOCAL ARW AND GFS/NAM12 SHOWING A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET.
WINDS BECOME NW AND SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY AS A FLAT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIKELY
GALE CONDITIONS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDS NIGHT/THURS WITH STRONG HIGH OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS WEDS
NIGHT INTO THURS. PLAYED WIND SPEEDS A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT...ALSO TONED DOWN WAVEWATCH SEAS IN THE WEDS/THURS TIME
FRAME...CAPPING COMBINED SEAS AT AROUND 12 FEET. COULD CERTAINLY
GO HIGHER...BUT HAVE ANOTHER DAY TO MONITOR. WITH THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES DURING MIDWEEK. FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NW/N WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC