FXUS63 KPAH 011856
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1256 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE ACROSS TX/LA
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING/EVOLVING STORM
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SYNCHRONIZE ON THEIR HANDLE
OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS...WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND NAM MODELLING THE PREFERRED FORECAST PERSISTENCY ROUTES
TO DATE. SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THIS APPROACH WITH THE 12Z
RUNS EITHER...MAYBE CONTINUING A LEAN HARDEST TOWARD NAM...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AS EVEN ECMWF HAS NUDGED ITS DIRECTION VS
THE OTHER WAY AROUND. STILL EVEN THEN ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND
NOW EVEN THE FURTHEST OUT GFS HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE.

NET RESULT WILL BE A RAIN EVENT MAINLY TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
A SMALL CHANCE COULD SNEAK UP INTO WKY/PENNYRILE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW STARTS TO LIFT UP THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION WED AND NOW W/ALL MODELS
CONTINUING THE 00Z TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION...THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO AN ALL
LIQUID EVENT THRU 00Z THU LOOKS GOOD. IN FACT THIS LATEST TRENDING
SUGGESTS LTL/NO EFFECT ON RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING...AS ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST COLD AIR IS JUST TOO LATE TO
ARRIVE TO MAKE AN ACCUMULATION BEYOND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR 2 IN
PREFERRED LOCALES NRN/NWRN PTNS MAINLY. THIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT W/ALL BUT THE PENNYRILE CHANGED OVER/ENDING BY
09Z AND IT HAPPENING THERE CERTAINLY BY/BEFORE 12Z...AFTER WHICH
PCPN IS ALL BUT OVER ANYWAY. FLURRIES IN THE FARTHEST NRN/NERN
PTNS MAY OCCUR THRU 12Z BUT WE'VE ELIMINATED POST 12Z MENTION NOW
AS NO MODEL REALLY SUPPORTS IT AND CERTAINLY THE TRENDING DOESN'T.

BEFORE AND AFTER THIS EVENT THE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED.
FINALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS STARTIONG TO SHOW SOME SYNC'ING IN
THE LONG RANGE TOO...WITH AN INTRODUCTORY DAY 7 POP NOW IN THE
OFFING AND APPARENTLY COLLABORATIVELY AGREED UPON. WILL MONITOR
THRU PRESS TIME FOR FINAL COLLAB TWEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 
DARK...MAINLY FROM THE EAST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER 
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS 
NORTHEAST TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE 
TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR 
CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 
18Z...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$