FXUS63 KJKL 070544
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1244 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

A VERY COLD START ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUD COVER IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWED FOR SUPPRESSED HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. THE IR SATELLITE AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT
FORECASTS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THINNING OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS...THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN...SO THINK A MOSTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT IS IN STORE OVERALL. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND
THANKS TO ALL OF THE CLOUDS...WITH RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER FOR THE MOST PART. THE RIDGES WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OFF FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THINK THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER WITH A 5 DEGREE
RANGE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE REORGANIZING WELL TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT... QUICKLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY AND
EXPECT OUR EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 20S. A BIT
OF A BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP RIDGES AND THE MORE EXPOSED WESTERN
VALLEYS NEAR 30.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD IS THEN PRECIP CHANCES
ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AS
IT PUSHES INTO EAST KENTUCKY. MODEL TIME/HEIGHTS INDICATE ONLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING SO WILL THUS ONLY MENTION A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVELS SLOWLY MOISTEN UP. AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERTAKE
THE SHRINKING LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIEING FRONT.
WE FAVORED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS ON MONDAY AND THE WARMER
NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT... DUE MOSTLY TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...CORRECTED

EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A
WARM FNT PUSHES NORTH FROM THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS ON TUE AS A STRONG SWRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. IN FACT PCPL WATER CLIMBS TO A HEALTHY 1 1/4
INCHES LATE TUE EVENING. COLD FNT TO FOLLOW EARLY WED MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. RA IS CATEGORICAL FOR TUE NITE/WED MORNING AND
TEMP FCST WILL BE NON DIURNAL. EXPECT LOWS TUE NITE TO OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUOUSLY RISE UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED. WITH THE
FNTL PASSAGE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FLAT AT THE DAILY MAX DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEN THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPS WILL FALL
THRU THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FALLING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THU AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY SAT A THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH HERE.. EXCEPT TO BETTER MATCH WITH
NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS EAST TO WEST
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL WAVE EJECT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY...LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY ARE HAVING TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND AS DRY
AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS IS HOLDING ON. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MORE
TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT GETS CLOSER WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND A DOWNSLOPE/DRYING WIND COMPONENT TO
OUR BENEFIT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT GETTING SOME PRECIPITATION JUST
BEFORE DAWN AT KSME/KLOZ...WILL STAY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AND LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL AROUND
DAWN...IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW WELL
SATURATION OF THE COLUMN PROGRESSES BUT FOR NOW JUST EXPECT VIRGA. DO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT
FEEL CHANCES ARE LOW THAT A TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED. WILL KEEP CIGS
JUST ABOVE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD...IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER