FXUS66 KSGX 272117
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AS A TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE
STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURN TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE
COAST NEAR IMPERIAL BEACH AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A STRATUS
LAYER BY EVENING.
LATEST SATELLITE PHOTOS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS
TROUGH/LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND LIGHTLY MORE INLAND WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW THAN THE 12Z NAM BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS LOW
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY
AND BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MIGHT BE A SOME WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS INTO MID MORNING ON SUNDAY BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE TOWARDS CLEARING MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH EACH MODEL RUN...
APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND IS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WITH SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVINGS SOUTH LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
272012Z...STRATUS LAYER HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE SINCE 1800 UTC.
CURRENTLY BELOW FL008 BUT EXPECT THIS TO LIFT AND SPREAD INLAND...
REACHING COASTAL SLOPES BY 0600 UTC. VERY LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY BRIEFLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INLAND AIRPORTS DURING EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED
AFTER 0600 UTC AS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE DEEPENS AND MERGES WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR SATURATED AIR MASS
EXPECTED BELOW FL090 BY 0900 UTC. SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 60 KT IN THE
FL100-FL150 LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER
DESERTS. AIR MASS STILL NEAR SATURATED BELOW FL090 SATURDAY AND
FREEZING LEVEL LOWERING TO FL060.
&&
.MARINE...
THOUGH BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS
MORNING...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SURF HEIGHTS 8 FT OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON AS TIDE DROPS AND BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE HARBOR MOUTHS
ARE POSSIBLE. SWELL/SURF HEIGHTS STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE ANOTHER
2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY FOR BOTH ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS DUE TO 10-15 FOOT COMBINED SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 10 FEET INNER WATERS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT PST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HORTON
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
