FXUS65 KPIH 251027
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
327 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT BUILDING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC. WHILE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CAPPED BELOW NORMALS WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY
AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE VALLEY WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR EASTERN BORDER EARLY FRIDAY AND SPREADS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL A
BIT INCONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE
TREND IS TOWARDS A SPLITTING SYSTEM WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE STORM
FALLS APART AND EXITS TO THE EAST. WINDS PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THIS TIME. HANKO
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW A SECONDARY SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS CARRIES QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT THAN THE EUROPEAN. KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST THE SAME WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS. THIS KEEPS A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH. THE EUROPEAN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...AM CONTINUING TO CONFINE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME LIFR FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KIDA BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE RECENT SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
