FXUS64 KMOB 221059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS SFC RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER S GA AND N FL THIS MORNING PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST 
TO THE CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A 
BETTER SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVING 
WAY TO INCREASED LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA 
THROUGH 12Z WED. AS A RESULT PATCHY AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLY DENSE AT 
TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CAN ALSO 
BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT OVER TX SHIFTS EAST. DUE TO A STRONG 
WEDGE EFFECT FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT THE ONSET OF 
LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FROM INCREASED ISENTROPIC OR LAYER LIFT CAN BE 
EXPECTED BY EARLY WED MORNING...MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS OF 
SOUTHEAST MS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV 
GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. 
32/EE                     

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL 
MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM 
OF THIS TROUGH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...STRONG WARM AIR 
ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. 
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO GRADUALLY 
RECOVER. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER MS 
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON 
A NEGATIVE TILT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES 
RAPIDLY NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY 
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THE VERY LEAST THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR A 
SQUALL LINE WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED 
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS 
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN 
LOWER 60S WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVECTING IN BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY 
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRIER 
AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL 
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING 
AWAY FROM THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 13/JC    

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH SCATTERED 
CEILINGS OF 100 TO 400 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS 
MORNING RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH A LIGHT 
SE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. 
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF MOB AND BFM WILL ALSO BE 
POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND 
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OVER TX. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST 
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED LATER TODAY THEN GRADUALLY 
BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING 
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE 
EXPECTED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING THU AFTERNOON AND THU 
NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY 
DENSE AT TIMES...CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. A 
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FOR NOW...SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. 
32/EE    
 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  46  68  58 /  00  05  20  50 
PENSACOLA   63  48  64  56 /  00  05  10  40 
DESTIN      62  53  64  58 /  00  05  05  30 
EVERGREEN   64  38  66  49 /  00  05  10  40 
WAYNESBORO  64  42  63  47 /  00  10  20  60 
CAMDEN      63  40  62  46 /  00  05  20  40 
CRESTVIEW   63  39  66  50 /  00  05  05  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$