FXUS61 KOKX 260133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY...THEN IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN HEAD THO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING
WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA BY EARLY/MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FIRST AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA
AND PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NJ. WILL LOOK
FOR THAT AREA TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. WILL DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT...AS ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

OTHERWISE...OW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN H95 INVERSION
AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NEAR THE WATER...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY MINUS THE
PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BLO A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES. PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
AFTN...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO DOMINATE AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THU
AFTN...LOW TO MID 50S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE STATES FROM THE PLAINS
CREATING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM
WILL TRACK NNE...APPROACHING CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT. SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN 
OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT 
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER THE COASTAL LOW 
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE 
PRECIPITATION. THE COASTAL LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY 
FRIDAY AND SLOWER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY. GUSTS AS 
HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT 
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WE WILL MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY 
FOR A WIND ADVISORY WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. 

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS 
FOR INLAND SECTIONS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE 
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT BY THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE 
LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE CHANCE FOR ANY 
PRECIPITATION IS SMALL. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON 
SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE 
AREA...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE ENERGY 
FROM AN H5 TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A TREND HOWEVER 
TOWARDS A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GFS 
HAS SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT...WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IS SLOWER. WENT IN BETWEEN 
THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
DURING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS FOR NOW 
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT BEST OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE 
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE RAIN...BUT SHOULD THERE BE 
ANY INSTABILITY ALOFT TRIGGERING PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF 
NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM WITH DRY WEATHER.

WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONSIDERING DECENT COLD 
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE WOULD 
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER IN SPITE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS OVERNIGHT. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE INCREASING
CIG HEIGHTS...BUT DECREASING VSBY WITH FOG DEVELOPING/THICKENING.
ALTHO VV MIGHT PRECLUDE INCREASING CLOUD DECK. NOT A GOOD NIGHT
OVERALL FOR AVIATION. PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN FOG.

FOR THURS...EXPECTING IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING ALOFT.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON. 
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL LATE EVENING ON.
FRIDAY- FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH STRONG W WINDS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH STRONG WEST WINDS. 
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS. 
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT THE SCA UP ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS
REMAINING 4-5 FT IN A SE SWELL. A DISCERNIBLE TREND HAS NOT BEEN
ESTABLISHED AND DON'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVE SHIFT CAN MONITOR AND
PULL IT. SAME STORY CONTINUES THROUGH THU NIGHT...SWELLS COULD
KEEP SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT...BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT EXTEND IF
THEY REMAIN UP TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE
THROUGH THU...THEN BACK TO THE NW AND START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT
AS A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. 

AS THE COASTAL STORM PASSES EAST THEN NORTHEAST...STRONG WESTERLY 
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WHILE THE STORM CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION. 
WAVES WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FT ON THE OCEAN AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUND 
BEFORE COMING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 
ON SATURDAY. THESE STRONG W WINDS WILL PUSH WATER OUT OF THE
SOUND...HARBOR AND BAYS...AND COULD CAUSE LOW WATER PROBLEMS.
CURRENT GFS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 2-3 FT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON SAT. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...HOWEVER ITS TOO EARLY TO PUT UP AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.

GALES MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN 
ZONES...OTHERWISE SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL 
WATERS. SCA WOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY 
MAINLY DUE TO SEAS UP TO 5 FT. AFTER A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS 
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON 
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN 
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...