FXUS64 KSHV 302124
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
324 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE CHANGING SEASON WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE APPARENT NEXT
FEW DAYS. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WILL MOVE ENE TO CENTRAL
TX BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH TX COAST. THIS LOW...COMBINED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW...PROVIDE A GREAT
OVERRUNNING SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN QUICKLY BUILDING TO THE NE
ACROSS AREA DURG AFTN ON TUESDAY. MOST CONCENTRATED RAIN TO OCCUR
JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY BISECT AREA WITH ENOUGH
NORTHWARD CURVATURE OF LOW TRACK IN DIFFUENT UPPER STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. DESPITE BEING A COLD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION... SOME MINOR FLOODING PSBL ALONG AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN...WITH INDICATED PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGOVER AROUND RED
RIVER VALLEY. UNLESS SFC LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...BELIEVE SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS OF GFS AND NAM VERY
SUPPORTED OF A PERIOD OF TRANSITORY SNOWFALL...ECMWF IS NOT ON
BOARD WITH THIS.
POSTFRONTAL TEMPS ON WED WILL ACTUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY. WITH
THIS DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE...GFS NOW ADVERTISING AN UPPER TROF
WITH LIGHT PCPN MOVG ACROSS AREA FRIDAY. A POTENTIAL FCST WITH
LIGHT SNOW COULD BE IN MAKING FOR FRIDAY...BUT WAIT FOR MORE MODEL
CONCENSUS. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT REINFORCEMENT IN
FORM OF 1035 MB HIGH SPILLING INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WED. EVEN
MORE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS FOR LATER IN WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SEEMINGLY DROPPING IN TO PAY VISIT AROUND MONDAY./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING. NO
VSBY OBSTRUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 00Z PACKAGE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING THE COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 41 53 47 52 33 / 0 50 80 60 10
MLU 40 58 49 55 34 / 0 40 80 80 20
DEQ 31 56 43 48 29 / 0 30 70 80 10
TXK 37 56 46 51 32 / 0 30 80 80 10
ELD 35 58 47 52 31 / 0 30 80 80 20
TYR 40 50 46 51 33 / 10 60 80 40 10
GGG 40 51 46 51 33 / 0 60 80 60 10
LFK 45 50 47 53 35 / 20 60 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
