FXUS65 KVEF 291808 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1007 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A WEAK 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN MANY AREAS....WITH THE 
STRONGEST NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND ALONG THE 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LIES IN THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THERE REMAINS SOME 
CLOUD COVER A POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE 
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND 
FORECAST TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND TO INCORPORATE CURRENT 
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE 
GOING MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
NW TO N THROUGH 10Z MONDAY AT 5-10 KTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE. CLOUDS AROUND 9K FEET WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THIS 
EVENING. CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A CLOUD OR TWO AOA 25K FEET ON MONDAY 
AFTERNOON.  

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON AT 6-12 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN AREAS THAT FUNNEL 
THIS WIND DIRECTION SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND KDRA. 
THESE AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN 
SOME OVERNIGHT BUT MAINLY REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. A DECK 
OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 8K AND 12K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT 
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLEAR SKY IN ALL AREAS 
FOR TONIGHT. 
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...352 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LAST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN 
CLARK COUNTY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. 
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY THIS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION 
WILL STAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-15 AS IT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD 
I-40...TWENTYNINE PALMS AND YUCCA VALLEY. WILL ALLOW OUR WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL 
BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...IF THERE ARE ANY 
SHOWERS LEFT THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND CONFINED TO SOUTHERN 
MOHAVE COUNTY. AREA WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO 
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GRADIENT LINGERS INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER 
ROUND OF NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...STILL WILDLY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT 
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE RIDGE OVER AREA AND THEN A 
MINOR WAVE MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THURSDAY. IT IS ON FRIDAY ONWARDS 
THAT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES APPEAR. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE OVER AREA 
WITH THE TOP BEING FLATTENED BY A WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH OF CWA  
WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS THE BEGINNING OF A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING 
INTO HE PACNW AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY. GEM 
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRETTY 
MUCH INTACT IN HAVING A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEXT 
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN 
WHATEVER SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.  
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

SALMEN/STACHELSKI/PIERCE/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS