FXUS63 KFGF 110203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
803 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING WEATHER WISE. BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
MANITOBA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
OKLAHOMA. NET RESULT IS A WESTERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA
WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE IN MOST PLACES. THIS WIND
WILL KEEP UP OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH SOME 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM
FALLING OFF THE DEEP END TONIGHT. NEEDED TO LOWER LOW TEMPS 1-3
DEGREES MOST AREAS BUT OVERALL PREV FCST LOWS LOOKED GOOD. EXPECT
LOWS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN THE COLDER AREAS AROUND LANGDON TO 10 TO 15
BELOW IN THE DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI-PKD AREAS...TO AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW
IN THE SE ND AND WCNTRL MN. ONE MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDDS SIGNIFICANTLY AS JUST SOME PATCHY STRATOCU AND CIRRUS
AROUND TONIGHT.  

WIND CHILL ADV THRU 18Z FRI LOOKS GOOD WITH FCST WIND CHILLS STILL
IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO RANGE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH
15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO SOUTH.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SLIGHT SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT NAM RH
FIELDS BEST REFLECT REALITY...SO WILL UTILIZE FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

2100 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE BROAD LOW ENCOMPASSING
CANADA AND MOST OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY IMPACTS BEING
BANDS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AND A
WASHED OUT SURFACE WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE 925-700 HPA BAROCLINIC
ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS FROM 00 TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AS SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
RISING TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING 
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP WELL 
BELOW ZERO. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FROM -5 TO -10 F ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND FROM -10 TO -20 F TO THE NORTH. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. AS 
SUCH...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS 
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTH
AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO KEPT 20 POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY. 
AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BIGGEST
IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE ZERO AND INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVER
THE WEEKEND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE ZERO MARK EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LONG RANGE INVOLVE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MOST ROBUST HAVING DEEPEST PRESSURE CENTERS/TIGHTEST BAROCLINIC
ZONE/PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN MORE SNOW/WIND DURING THE
ABOVE PERIOD AND COULD SHAPE UP TO PROBLEMS. ECMWF AND GEM NOT AS
STRONG WITH WIND AND SNOW WITH FROPA WITH GEM A COMPROMISE. AT
THIS POINT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS GFS.
FLOW FAIRLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS BACK INTO ZONAL PATTERN FOR
MODERATION BY MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...

SOME MODEST CU DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD MVFR CIGS LATE 
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING ONLY 
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022>024.

&&

$$
RIDDLE/ROGERS