FXUS64 KBMX 250414 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS MAINLY FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PROGRESSION OF AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS CWA...WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING W. DID NOT CHANGE THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR FLURRIES
FAR NW COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AS MOISTURE EXITS AND TEMPERATURES
COOL. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE ANY PROBLEMS AS TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND EVENT WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT LIVED.

08

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. 
/ISSUED 259 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONG WEDGE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...DEW POINTS ARE REFUSING TO RISE. MOST DEW POINTS
HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 50S SO THE AIR IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STABLE. THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL SERIOUSLY MITIGATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. I STILL
THINK WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
LESS THAN AN HOUR BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE STATE...DEW POINTS IN
MARENGO AND SUMTER COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S. IF THIS DOES
HAPPEN...THESE COUNTIES AND THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA COULD
SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO. 

THE BIGGER THREAT THAT REMAINS IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS OVER 
THE STATE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE BEING SEEN ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...WITH SOME SUBSIDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 3 AM CST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED PAST MIDNIGHT. CHECK OUT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LATEST ON BOTH OF THESE THREATS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TONIGHT OF A COUPLE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN
OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WITH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE... 
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO EEK OUT
A FLURRY OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA 
BY THE NOON HOUR ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME 
SUN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...THE GFS HAS INTRODUCED A UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE THAT SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF FOR SUNDAY.  I 
HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY... 
BUT I DON'T EXPECT MUCH OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY MORNINGS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S AREA 
WIDE.

THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONTINUITY WHEN IT COMES TO 
THE SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  GFS SPITS OUT PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE...BUT KEEPS MOST OF IT SOUTH OF THE AREA.  EURO SPINS UP A 
SURFACE LOW BUT IS PRETTY DRY. 

27

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL 
ALABAMA.  AS A RESULT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...DECREASING A BIT TOMORROW AS THE LOW 
MOVES FARTHER NORTH...BUT REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY.  

SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 3 AM WITH 
GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SHIFTING WESTERLY AS IT PASSES. 
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TCL AROUND 09Z...EET/BMX BY 11Z AND 
ANB/MGM AND TOI BY 13Z.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD ALONG AND 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY TOMORROW...PREVAILING FROM THE 
WEST.  CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5000 FEET DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS.  

LLWS IS A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 
AND 30 MPH THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED.  

12/SIRMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  44  27  46  28 / 100  20  10  10  10 
ANNISTON    43  47  27  49  28 / 100  20  10  10  10 
BIRMINGHAM  39  45  30  48  28 / 100  20  10  10  10 
TUSCALOOSA  40  47  27  50  29 /  80  10  10  10  10 
CALERA      40  46  29  50  29 / 100  20  10  10  10 
AUBURN      44  49  29  49  27 / 100  10  10  10  10 
MONTGOMERY  43  51  31  53  32 / 100  10  10  10  10 
TROY        44  52  29  54  32 / 100  10  10  10  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

08/27/12