FXUS63 KPAH 081953
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS 
EVENING...TO JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS AROUND MIDNIGHT TO NEAR CHICAGO
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SECOND LARGE WAVE OF SHOWERS WAS SEEN ON THE 
REGIONAL MOSAIC MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. 
WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL OR AT LEAST HIGH LIKELY THROUGH 
06Z...THEN TAPER THEM OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
WILL NOSE NORTH WITH THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD THE END OF TODAY AND 
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAINLY THE SE 2/3 OF 
THE FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY WEST KENTUCKY. SURFACE BASED 
INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT IN THE MODELS. THAT COUPLED WITH ONLY A 
BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS THAT OVERCOME A 
PERSISTENT INVERSION JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...MEANS THE CHANCE OF 
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE SHOULD BE RATHER LOW. SO NOT SURE ABOUT 
THE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF HAIL AND WIND SPC IS DEPICTING FOR 
OUR AREA. WHILE THE CHANCE IS NOT ZERO FOR WIND...THE CHANCE SEEMS 
EXTREMELY LOW WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ELEVATED. WILL MONITOR 
MAINLY WEST KENTUCKY. NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH 
READINGS RISING THROUGH THE LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...THEN 
FALLING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY BEGIN TIME OF MIDNIGHT...AS WINDS 
SHOULD PICK UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE ENOUGH BY MID AFTERNOON TO HAVE THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
3 PM. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...AS THE COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE AREA AND WHERE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY...QUIET BUT COLD 
WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...MODELS
ARE NOT IN TOO BAD AGREEMENT OF WHAT WILL UNFOLD. THE SFC HIGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST...AND WE REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS TRY TO PAINT SOME MINIMAL QPF OVER AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD SEE
SOME WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...IT WARMS UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH TO WHERE ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BE
RAIN...BUT RAIN OR SNOW NORTH. 

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL THROW A 20 PCT
CHANCE IN FOR MONDAY/MON NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN HALF. WILL LIKELY
SEE THE POP INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SINCE HPC MENTIONS THAT
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY EVENING...WITH
THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING. CHANCE OF RAINFALL SHOULD DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM
06 UTC ON...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO
STRONG AND GUSTY. WINDS IN THE 06-18Z UTC TIME FRAME WILL BE
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-30 KTS AND PERHAPS
GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY 
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$