FXUS64 KMEG 301038
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
438 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE
MAINLY FROM ABOUT TUPELO AND SOUTHEASTWARD AT SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
SHALLOW DENSE FOG NEAR RIVERS AND CREEKS WITH THE WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS BEFORE
REINTRODUCING IN THE ZONES. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.
A TURN TO MORE WET WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUED TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO EAST TX BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH MS. RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND EXACT PATH. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT
THE SOUNDINGS...THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF AND HOW SOON ANY
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. FOR NOW MENTIONED A CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RELATIVELY WARM THUS KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY THURSDAY MORNING PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALLOWING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
MINUS 10C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDSOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL MOVES THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
QUICKER TO THE EAST THAN THE ECMWF OVER BY THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
COLD CANADIAN AIR OVER THE MIDSOUTH LONGER AND ALSO KEEPS THE
MIDSOUTH RAINFREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
AT KMEM...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH 16-20Z...
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN. BRIEF IFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
-RA WILL END AROUND 08Z. NORTH WINDS 9-14 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.
GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD IN TAF.
AT KJBR...KMKL...AND KTUP...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AS EARLY AS 13Z KJBR TO AROUND 20Z AT
KMKL AND KTUP. IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AT KTUP
THROUGH ABOUT 0830Z UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. -RA WILL END AT KMKL 08-10Z AND KTUP 12-14Z.
NORTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY...MAINLY IN THE 09-18Z RANGE...THEN
WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 36 60 45 / 10 0 0 50
MKL 49 28 57 39 / 10 0 0 30
JBR 51 32 56 39 / 10 0 0 30
TUP 53 33 58 45 / 50 10 10 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
