FXUS64 KLZK 150555
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF AR...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MOVE OVERHEAD.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
SITES..AND NEAR MIDDAY AT SRN SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. MENTIONED VCSH FOR LLQ SINCE THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN VICINITY NEAR THAT SITE AND TO THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE MID SOUTH. WITH
NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WILL BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG A
WALDRON TO RUSSELLVILLE TO SALEM LINE AND SURGING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO
20 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND JUST AFTER FROPA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLEARING UNTIL SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER FROPA. CROSS SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.
ONLY REAL CHANCE OF RAIN THIS PERIOD IS TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE/SPEED
MAX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM GENERATING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL WILL
EXPAND AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT WITH MODELS BRINGING THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD TO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL ADD LOW END CHANCE
POPS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE BUT ACTUAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER VERSUS WHAT WAS SEEN MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN IT WILL BE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RETURN IN RESPONSE AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM IN SPITE OF UPPER FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY NORTH TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL...MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. ECWMF SHOWS TROUGH AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OVER ARKANSAS...WHERE AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING THE FA MAINLY DRY. THEY BOTH SHOW
THICKNESSES LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH ARKANSAS. WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO START
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 41 22 45 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 39 48 28 52 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 38 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 46 26 50 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 34 45 26 47 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 40 48 30 51 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 32 45 25 51 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 38 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 32 42 23 45 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 38 47 28 49 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 43 23 48 / 10 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 32 44 24 46 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 36 46 26 48 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
