FXUS61 KBGM 051816
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY AND SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CATSKILLS OF NEW
YORK...WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NEW
YORK INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW FLURRIES AT KBGM AND KAVP
NOW. UPSTREAM LIFR CONDITIONS IN IPT AND SEG. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD COVER ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA BY DARK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PARTIALLY BE DETERMINED BY
ELEVATION. WARM GROUND WILL MEAN SNOW WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ACCUMULATING. GREATEST AMOUNTS STILL AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS NOW UPPED TO 2 TO 4
INCHES. WFO CTP HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH AN ADVISORY DUE TO THERE
3 INCH CRITERIA COMPARED TO OUR 4 INCH CRITERIA.
922 AM...
SNOW HAS MOVED INTO CENT PA ATTM. STEADY NE MOVEMENT SHOULD BRING
IT TO AVP BY AROUND NOON. UPPED MIDDAY POPS...QPF...AND SNOWFALL.
THIS MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES. ALSO UPPED TEMPS A
LITTLE SINCE TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST MAX TEMPS NOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOPRES WILL FRM NEAR THE SC CST THIS MRING AND RACE NEWRD THIS
AFTN. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND BRUSH THE FCST AREA
WITH LGT SNOW LTR THIS MRNG INTO EARLY THIS EVE. FCST AREA NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET AND SOME MID LVL CLDS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME VIRGA FRMG WELL BACK INTO CNTRL NY ATTM. HWVR...DRY AIR
BLO SEEMS TO BE KEEPING ANY PCPN FROM RCHG THE GND. MAIN PLAYER
CONTS TO BE THE DVLPG LOW AND THE WEAK INV TROF APRCHG FROM THE
SOUTH. OPERATIONAL NAM AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT FOR THE
MOST PART AND KEEP THE MEASURABLE SNOW SOUTH OF I88 AND EAST OF
I81 IN PA.HPC WWD GRAPHICS SEEM RSNBLE AND WERE INGESTED INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THE SNOWFALL FCST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. THESE GRIDS
WERE ALSO NICELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PRVS FCST...ALTHOUGH I DID
TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT TO FIT THEM BETTER WITH THE QPF FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTUALLY ENTERING A SEASONABLY COLD PTRN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
OCT. SOME LEFTOVER SNOW PSBL EARLY TNGT BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS
THEN HIPRES BLDS. FLOW BHD THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AND SHEARED
BUT EVENTUALLY DVLPS A WNW MEAN FLOW WHICH SHD RESULT IN SOME
LES SAT NGT INTO SUN. MAIN MITIGATING FACTORS ALSO INCLUDE SOME
VERY DRY AIR IN THE BNDRY LYR AND THE MRGNL DELTA T. STILL LES SHD
CONT INTO SUN MRNG BEFORE VERY DRY AIR OVERWHELMS THE WEAK EVENT.
INCRSGLY STABLE AND DRY AIR ALONG WITH UNFVRBL AND SHEARED FLOW
SHD CONT TO LIMIT THE RISK OF ANY LES THRU MON. LTR MON...CLIPPER
TYPE LOPRES ZIPS THRU THE LAKES AND DVLPS SOME WEAK WAA SNOWS OVER
NRN NY AND SRN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT REMAINS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND FURTHER NORTH. WILL
CONT WITH SOME LGT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS INTO MON NGT.
ADJUSTED GRIDDED TEMPS TO THE LATEST BLENDED MOS DATA. OVERALL PTRN
LOOKS CONSTSTENT TO THE EARLIER RUNS SO ONLY MINOR CHGS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 240 AM...MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT MED RNG PCKG...MAINLY TO
TWEEK DOWN TEMPS AND INDICATE A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW WITH THE MIDWEEK
(WED) SYSTEM. MDLS TRENDING COLDER AND LATEST PROFILES SUGGEST
SNOW AS MAIN PTYPE...PSLY MIXING WITH RAIN ON WED AFTN. PREV DISC BLO...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...WEAK CLIPPER IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. LIGHT
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM
OCCURS WED AS A LARGE STORM MOVES NE OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH US.
THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR W THEN N SO MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE RAIN. EURO KEEPS AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST THEN
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO CANADA. A COLD UL TROF OVER THE
NE US WILL GIVE US LAKE EFFECT SNOW WED NGT TO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS OVER TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST DIFFICULT
FORECAST IS OVER KRME/KSYR, AS SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
BOTH CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH PRECIP
TYPE LIGHT SNOW. FOR KBGM/KAVP, IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z THEN CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT KELM/KITH, MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING. AT KSYR/KRME,
FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR.
MON/MON NGT/TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE NGT...VFR.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN.
WED NGT/THU...MVFR IN SHOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
