FXUS64 KCRP 051025
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
425 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
THROUGH 10 AM AS PREVIOUSLY DEFINED. WEAK/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BECOME WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL INDUCE MODERATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THIS REGION WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT VALUES MUCH ABOVE THOSE REACHED THIS
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMIDST THE
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUDS/CHANCES OF PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...A
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE AREA BY MORNING. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING BY 12Z MONDAY FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THAT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES AND WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FOR MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WENT 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
MONDAY. 85H WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT POPS GOING INTO THIS PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
PLAINS TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MID-COAST MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WERE LOWER THAN THE WARM MEX GUIDANCE AND
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GRID TEMPS FROM THE GFS. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY THAT COULD
PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
05Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF A LINE FROM
ALICE TO GEORGE WEST AFTER THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 6 AM TODAY. WILL MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS
LOCATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 54 46 67 54 63 / 0 10 30 10 30
VICTORIA 53 41 60 47 59 / 0 10 40 10 30
LAREDO 57 42 69 51 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 55 43 68 50 63 / 0 10 20 10 30
ROCKPORT 55 48 66 56 64 / 0 10 30 10 30
COTULLA 55 40 67 45 60 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 46 68 55 66 / 0 10 20 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 57 51 68 58 66 / 0 10 30 10 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
TMT/89...LONG TERM
