FXUS61 KOKX 160316
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1016 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. THREE SOURCES OF LIFT...A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ARE HELPING PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF THE THREE WILL COINCIDE THE BEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. LAPS ANALYSIS OF FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ACTUALLY SUGGEST A MARGINAL RAIN
PROFILE...BUT FEEL THAT COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH WITH PRECIP AND
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS
THE FA. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GTLKS. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE RULE ESP LATE WED AND
THU AS SFC LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST TO THE GASPE PENINSULA IN
QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GTLKS. THIS NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
FILLS AND SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST FOCUSING THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS... LITTLE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER
THAN HEADING EASTWARD IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS COMES A BIT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS COLD ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM AS GFS STILL WANTS TO PUSH IT OUT TO SEA
EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS...TO THE LEFT OF 310...THEN WINDS TURN NORTHWEST (JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF 310) AND BEGIN TO GUST AFTER MIDNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT. A SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST WITH LOCAL MVFR. WINDS
THEN BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW (G20 TO 25 KT).
OUTLOOK 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
THU...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR EXPECTED BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL CSTL
STORM FOR LATE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT EXPIRED SCA...AND TWEAKED WINDS DOWNWARD
A LITTLE IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
WE MIGHT COME UP JUST SHORT OF GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT GALE WARNING FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP IT. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
DURING INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO JUST REACH GALE FORCE.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY...BUT A STRONG
COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WILL NOT EXTEND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS OF YET BUT GLW WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
AND IMPACT THE AREA WATERS ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY..GALES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
