FXUS61 KILN 100614
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LINGER SNOW SHOWERS LONGER IN THE FORECAST.
AXIS OF SHEAR VORTICITY ALONG WITH SHALLOW...BUT MOIST/UNSTABLE
925 MB-850 MB LAYER WERE RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TOWARD SUNRISE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY AVERAGING
A TENTH OR TWO. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA THEY WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CAA WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS PREVIOUS TEMPS SEEMED REASONABLE. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IN COMPARISON TO TODAY...THIS TIME PERIOD IS ACTUALLY QUITE
BENIGN AS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH MASSIVE OMEGA BLOCK STRUCTURE OVER
ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA WHICH ALLOWS FOR PHASING OF THE JET
UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK...AND THE ARCTIC JET DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GUARANTEES A STEADY
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR....AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE COLDEST DAY AS 925MB TEMPS HOVER IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO /C/. STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST EVEN QUITE A
WAYS FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE. GOOD MIXING AGAIN
PROMISES WIND GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS/20S...WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...MAYBE EVEN BELOW. STILL QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUDS AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE /SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOW/ RUNS QUICKLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK FORCING AND A VERY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
RESPONSE. THUS WILL ONLY SERVE TO HOLD CLOUDS IN A LITTLE
LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTL OH...WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CLEARS OUT THURS
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE
DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP SO RADIATIVE COMPONENT WILL BE DIMINISHED.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME WAVES OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...THE MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH AND CANADIAN-ORIGIN AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. RETURN FLOW /SWLY/
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL
BRING SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL HAVE A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY. THE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH AS FLOW KICKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING
FROM THE GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
SEE A CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SHOT OF
RAIN BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LITTLE FORCING NOTED IN THE REGION. I HAVE SHAVED BACK
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR POPS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUNDAY IS A PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHERE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...EVEN
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL PULL
COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT...CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MID WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS IN A BIT OF FLUX. I TRENDED
TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE BUT LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WHILE KEEPING
THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...A BIT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE...KEEPING WIND GUSTS TO
22-25KTS THROUGH 12Z AND THEN APPROACHING 28KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURS. VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH SHSN IN PLACE THERE MAY
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT ESPCY KDAY/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH 09-10Z.
LL MOISTURE KEEPS MVFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE DRY AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. CIGS TO VFR IN THE 14Z-18Z TIMEFRAME...BECOMING
SKC IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR
