FXUS64 KFWD 080519 AAD
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.AVIATION...
DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON
TOMORROW. VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE
WITH KFTW THE OUTLIER WITH 7 MILES...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A BRIEF
RISE. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY IN THIS RANGE FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT MAY DROP TOWARDS DAYBREAK TO LESS THAN A MILE. WILL
TEMPO 3/4 OF A MILE IN THE METRO WITH 1/2 OF A MILE TOWARDS WACO
FOR THE 10Z - 14Z TIMEFRAME OR 4AM THROUGH 8AM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTH BUT WILL VEER TO THE EAST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND THEN S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WE BE
RATHER GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP CLEAR THE
VISIBILITIES...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING THE CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE
HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST DUE TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR THE SKIES...BUT THE WEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE. THIS IS GOING TO POSE A
CROSSWIND PROBLEM AT THE AREA N-S RUNWAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED THE
FROPA IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF AT 8Z OR 2AM TOMORROW
NIGHT.
85/HAMPSHIRE
&&
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HRS TONIGHT AS LOWER LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTH TX. CONCERNS REGARDING
POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES AT GRAHAM
AND BRECKENRIDGE HAVE BOTH CLIMBED TO 33 DEGREES AS OF 7 PM CST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOURLY OBS/AREA WSR-88D DATA FOR ANY
POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LATEST
ACARS SOUNDING DATA INDICATING A DEPTH OF AROUND 3000FT. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION JUST ATOP THIS COLD LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND SOME DEVELOPING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
COMPLICATED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR COLDEST POINT NOW. WITH
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AND
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN US CYCLONE...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN RISE
A FEW DEGREES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NECESSITY FOR ANY WINTER WX ADVISORIES THIS EVENING. AS FOR
RAIN...ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASES AFTER DARK IN
COMBINATION WITH BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL HAVE HIGH POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF RAIN...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A HINT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST...WHICH COULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THAT AREA.
ON TUESDAY ATTENTION IS TURNED TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES. GFS IS USUALLY TOO QUICK TO ERODE THE COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND QUICKLY DRIES THINGS OUT WITH STRONG WEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE SIDED MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE 12Z NAM WHICH KEEPS COLDER AIR ALONG WITH CLOUDS
IN PLACE LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE THE POTENCY OF
THE S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL SURELY ERODE THE COLD AIR...THINK IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PRECIP
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...A STRONG
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S.
BEYOND MID WEEK...FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT FOR PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 38 52 33 45 24 / 60 30 5 5 5
WACO, TX 44 61 36 51 26 / 70 30 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 40 46 30 39 21 / 80 50 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 36 52 28 41 20 / 50 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 38 49 30 42 20 / 60 30 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 39 51 33 45 27 / 60 30 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 42 49 34 45 25 / 70 40 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 44 53 37 47 27 / 80 40 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 43 64 37 51 28 / 60 30 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/69
