FXUS63 KDDC 290855
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS IF ANY OF THE CWA WILL GET LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IS EJECTING
MINOR SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE MOISTURE AT LOWER LAYERS IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. GOING ALONG
WITH MY NEIGHBORING WFO'S TO THE SOUTH, HAVE INCLUDES LOWER SLIGHT
POPS IN MY SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, IN CASE A FEW RAIN DROP OR
FLURRIES FALL OUT TO THE MID LAYER CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, RAISED TODAY'S MAX
TEMPS A TAD, BASED ON THE RUC AND NAM BOTH FORECASTING MID FORTIES
FOR HIGHS TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY UNTIL
LATE TODAY, THEN NEARLY CLEARING TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL AS WINDS DROP OFF, AND SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S IN MY
WEST AND NORTH, AND ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MY SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO
TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. IT SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE MID 50S IN MY WEST AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE 10 MPH RANGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST BY NOON AND HELP ADVECT IN SOME WARMER AIR. THE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND ALLOW MIN
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL TO AROUND 30F MOST LOCATIONS.
DAYS 3-7...
LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOICE, IT APPEARS THAT
WESTERN KS WILL STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH DAY 7 WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS
OF COLD AIR. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL INVADE
OUR AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. NEVERTHELESS THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25. THAT SAID, THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES DEVELOP A
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH DURING DAYS 8-10, WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH NOSING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN
THE DESERT SW, WITH ARCTIC AIR POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAY 10. WE WILL SEE IF THESE MODELS BACK OFF OF THIS SOLUTION IN
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 24 60 30 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 45 22 59 30 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 44 26 56 30 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 46 25 58 30 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 46 23 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 27 59 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN12/24/99
