FXUS64 KMEG 160304 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MO THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH WERE PUSHING
COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WEST TN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST MINIMUMS
FOR TONIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED IN SOME PLACES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NO UPDATES ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURES.
JCL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE FALLEN SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING...WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF NOW CLEAR AND
THE SOUTHEAST HALF STILL SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS. THIS CLEARING LINE
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH AN ALREADY COOL START THIS EVENING...MUCH
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AT ALL
LOCATIONS.
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW A DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING MOS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY THURSDAY...
925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO +6C TO +8C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WILL BEGIN TRACKING EAST TO NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN BRINGING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN SO
A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS ADDED FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. INCREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TRAP SOME OF THE MILD AIR IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.
BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM...A TROUGH WILL DIG ITSELF INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
APPEARS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW NORTH OF THE MS/TN
STATE LINE AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERALL CAA REGIME AND NORTHWEST FLOW...SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
A BROAD...DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES OVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH IN A NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOW SHOWERS AND MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BY
TUESDAY...925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C SIGNALING
THAT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...OR EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
THINGS COULD GET QUITE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ARE ALREADY IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AND THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR ABOUT
A WEEK NOW. THAT IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AT
THAT RANGE. IT IS NOT WORTH GETTING INTO MANY DETAILS AT THIS
RANGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE...MAJOR WINTER
STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN STATES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN BEARS WATCHING.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN WILL BE
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 25 48 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 23 46 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 23 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 28 49 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
