FXUS61 KBGM 020837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WIL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WIL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES OVER THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH CI STREAMING OUT AHD OF
THE NEXT LOW ALREADY INTO MUCH OF PA. XPCT A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM APRCHS...BUT SLOWER TIMING ON THE 00Z AND 06Z
NAM RUN HAS CAUSED ME TO BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN. ONLY THE XTRM SWRN ZONES SHD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE
00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV RACES THRU THE AREA IN THE LRGR SCALE SW FLOW.
SFC LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY AS IT RACES FROM THE OH VLY TO WRN NY BY
12Z THU. THE FAST MVMT DOES NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DVLP A GOOD
SELY INFLOW OR LINGER MUCH IN THE FCST AREA SO I/M NOT XPCTG
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM
TIGHTENING TO THE POINT WHERE WNDS WLD RCH THE ADV CAT. SO...WHILE
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY LTR TNGT...FLAGS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
DRY SLOT PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH THU AND BRINGS A QUICK END TO
THE RAIN. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND SHEARED
FLOW BHD THE LOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MRGNL FOR LES...AND WITH THE
SHEAR...JUST SOME CHANCE POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED FOR THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES FOR SOME LGT LES.
WITH THE UPR TROF AXIS REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST...COLD AIR IS
SLOW TO FILTER IN AND THRU THE SHRT TERM...REALLY NOT ALL THAT
FVRBL FOR ANY LES IN THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. 0Z AND 06Z GFS CREATED SOME
EXCITEMENT WITH A COASTAL STORM BRINGING SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO THE CWA.
THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FARTHER EAST BUT STILL BRUSHES THE EASTERN CWA
WITH PRECIP. GOING WITH HPC THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS IS INDICATING...THUS
PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEW EURO JUST CAME IN AND
WHILE IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING THIS LOW...VS.
THE PREVIOUS RUN...IT IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND WOULD KEEP
ANY PRECIP TO OUR EAST.
PUTTING THAT TO THE SIDE OUR FOCUS WITH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT OUR CWA FOR THE
SEASON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT VEERS MORE TOWARD 280/290 FROM
MID SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. DELTA T'S APPROACH
20 DURING THIS STRETCH WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THIS
FLOW FAVORS LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN
ONEIDA COUNTY ALONG WITH NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY. STILL A WAYS OUT
BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO MENTION LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THESE AREAS.
WE REMAIN CHILLY ENOUGH FOR LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE WHERE SO
I KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. BEST BET WOULD STILL BE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN MAKER LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TRACK TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF VALLEY FOG NEAR THE ELM TERMINAL EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST. MIN TEMPERATURE / CROSSOVER SPREAD IS MARGINAL, AND
RIVER TEMP IS COOLING FAST, LESSENING THE RADIATIONAL FOG THREAT.
A STORM MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE
TERMINALS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES FALLING
INTO MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR TERRITORY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...MVFR RAIN. CHC IFR. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THUR....MVFR/IFR. GUSTY WINDS. AM RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS.
THUR NGT...VFR AREAS MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME.
FRI...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME EARLY.
SAT/SUN...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME/KSYR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJP
