FXUS64 KSJT 261126
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
526 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS TODAY.
THUS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
SHORT TERM...
DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE START OF THIS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE
NUMBERS CLOSE TO MEX MOS LOOK GOOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY
AROUND 70.
LONG TERM...
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
FOR THE LONG TERM. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS.
FIRST...THE GFS HAS FLIPPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SO...THAT
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ME. ALSO...THE GFS NOW INDICATES
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO
MONDAY...THEN MONDAY NIGHT...AND ON INTO TUESDAY. SO...WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT DAY SIX. THUS...LOTS OF ROOM FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST APPROACH HERE REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE BOTTOM
LINE...THE GFS IS NOW INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FUTURE GFS RUNS MAY NOT
BRING THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CURRENT RUN.
ALSO...THE GFS40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THIS RUN STILL INDICATE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THESE TWO PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 65 39 70 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 67 38 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 67 34 67 45 71 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
