FXUS64 KSJT 102031
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
231 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...HEARTLAND...NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
EASTERN CONCHO VALLEY AS A RESULT TOMORROW MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...AND A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT...
WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...HAVE PUSHED THE CHANCES FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND
EAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE HELP OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WINDS
ELSEWHERE. BUT...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER MODEST INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
20
.LONG TERM...
MADE NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. A LEESIDE TROUGH
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE BIG COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 20 MPH. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISUTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BUT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER IN BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR THAN THE GFS. FOR
NOW HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 4 TO 5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 26 50 40 65 43 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 30 55 39 67 42 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 34 53 37 68 40 / 0 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/28
