FXUS64 KEWX 111738 AAC
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS UNDERGOING AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH THE
COASTAL LOW OFF THE GULF COAST COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE.
THIS WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN TO COME FROM THE SOUTH AND
MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE VSBY OF 4 TO 2SM INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 06Z AND WILL HAVE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
MORNING. KDRT WILL HAVE VSBY OF 2SM BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE IFR CEILINGS BY 00Z TODAY. BY 18Z
SATURDAY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE RAIN
EXPANDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.
NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
AVIATION...
A MOIST OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CIGS MAY DIP TO BORDERLINE MVFR THIS MORNING BEFORE MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 17-18Z. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. -RA/-DZ IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
KDRT...BUT CIGS WILL BE LIMITED TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOWERING TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NELY 5 TO 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
DISCUSSION...
S/W ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE 500 HPA TROF WILL MOVE
TO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS EARLY TO MID DEC. PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES TONIGHT...ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE FOG WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN. AS THE FAST MOVING S/W ALOFT MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A CLEARING TREND FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED. SHOWED SOME RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN MOVED
RAIN CHANCES TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE S/W ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CLEARING TREND IS IN PROGRESS...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...AS
THE NEXT FAST MOVING 500 HPA TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE MOMENTUM OF THE WIND
FIELD ALOFT ON MONDAY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z
FCST SOLUTIONS SHOW A QUICKER TREND FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...SO SHOWED THESE TRENDS IN FORECASTS.
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU
MONDAY EVENING.
AS THE FAST MOVING 500 HPA TROF MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IT OPENS THE GATE FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
COLD AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AGAIN.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS IN THE PAST WEEK
AND THE TREND STILL SHOWS UP ON 00Z AND 06Z DEC. 11TH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT SHOWED COLDER DAYS FOR TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 46 40 56 41 71 / 40 50 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 46 40 55 39 71 / 50 50 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 41 56 40 71 / 50 50 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 39 57 39 70 / 30 40 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 46 66 43 73 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 45 39 57 40 71 / 30 50 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 48 42 60 39 72 / 40 40 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 41 56 40 71 / 50 50 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 48 42 54 44 70 / 70 70 30 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 42 58 42 71 / 50 50 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 42 59 42 71 / 50 50 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11/19
