FXUS64 KMEG 302326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

SYNOPSIS...
AT MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE HEADING EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE 
GENERALLY AROUND 50 WITH SOME 40S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.  HIGH 
PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA. 

BELLES 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  WHATEVER 
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.  SOIL 
MOISTURE IS A BIT UP DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER 
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.  WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF 
FOG OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT SINCE 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z.  OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOME 
RETURN FLOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM OCCURRING.  

LITTLE TO MENTION FOR TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR 
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THOUGH MONDAY)...
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF. 
HAVE USED BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES....WITH THE NAM WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE 
SURFACE LOW. USING THE GFS/ECMWF AS GUIDE...BELIEVE SURFACE LOW
STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION TAKING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
OUR EAST. FOCUS DOES SHIFT TO POLAR JET WHICH DIPS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. QUESTION IS DOES ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOW OR MIX FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS? GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION STAYS
RAIN...POSSIBLE SOME MIX AT THE END. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WITH MIX ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  GFS 
SUGGESTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SNOW/RAIN) OVER MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY 
AHEAD OF DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY SINCE THE 
ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GFS 
MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS POLAR 
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US.  RETURN 
FLOW ON MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS.  LOW 
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...THEREFORE HAVE KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BELLES 

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. ADDED MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MKL/TUP BETWEEN 09-13Z AS
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED BEYOND THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  34  57  43  50 /   0   0  50  80 
MKL  29  56  39  48 /   0   0  30  80 
JBR  29  56  38  45 /   0   0  30  80 
TUP  32  57  43  52 /  10  10  60  80 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$