FXUS64 KLZK 152015
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
214 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYSTEMS IN BOTH
BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES TO CONTEND WITH ALTHOUGH MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN BRANCH. NEW GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. SOME TIMING
ISSUES EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT THEY DO HAVE SUPPORT FROM
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SO A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS IN
ORDER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SOLUTION THE SLOW OUTLIER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ITS SOLUTION WILL BE DISREGARDED.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT SITTING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH CONVECTION STRETCHED
ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY
AND WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF...CLOUD COVER WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ON
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SHAPING UP FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AREA WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THROUGH
OUT THE PERIOD.
COME FRIDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NORTHERN STREAM AS AN H5
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH COLDER
AIR SWEEPING IN ONCE AGAIN. THERMAL PROFILES/MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
BEING WHAT THEY ARE BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING WHEN PERIOD ENDS AND
EXTENDED PERIOD COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH MOISTURE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...CHANGING OVER TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY. MUCH DISCREPANCY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE MODELS. THE GFS
WANTS TO BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE STATE. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 22 46 26 53 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 29 51 29 56 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 21 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 50 28 56 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 49 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 30 49 30 54 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 27 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 21 47 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 23 46 26 53 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 28 49 29 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 24 49 27 54 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 24 48 27 53 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 26 48 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
