FXUS63 KFGF 261506
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...AND WE HAVE REPLACED ALL
WARNING HEADLINES WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z SUN. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW TODAY
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES LOCALLY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA CLOSER TO A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE DEEP CLOSED
LOW. THE FEED OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL...PRODUCING
SNOW BANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL...THE
SNOW INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE WSW.  

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY OCCUR WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 
GFS, ECMWF AND NAM WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. 
GFS WAS A TAD SLOWER. WILL USE THE GFS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING 
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IA WITH SHORT WAVES OVER NORTHERN KS, IA AND 
SOUTHEAST MN. THE SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER 
LOW THEN UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. 

WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND UPPER LOW FROM THE 
EAST COAST, ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
SATURDAY. CONVEYOR BELT/TROWEL WEAKENS WITH TIME. AREAS RADARS 
SHOWING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM. 
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS HAVE 
SETTLE DOWN A BIT. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND PRESSURE 
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY. WILL KEEP WARNINGS GOING 
EVEN THOUGH NOT MEETING CRITERIA AS ROADS ARE STILL IN NOT IN GOOD 
SHAPE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EITHER CANCEL OR EXPIRE WARNINGS.  

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH WED. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED 
TO STAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
DK