FXUS62 KMFL 011938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS THE ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS
MOVING EAST. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ITS PATH TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEK, ENHANCING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE
WILL ENHANCE THE POPS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO START DRYING OUT. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH SOME OF THESE
BECOMING STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FROM SUNDAY ON, EXPECT NEAR
CLIMO POPS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP SCEC FOR THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL DECREASE A
BIT UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN THE NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCEC LEVELS.  

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RH WILL BE ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 85 72 84 / - 20 60 60 
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 85 74 84 / - 20 50 60 
MIAMI           73 85 74 84 / - 20 50 60 
NAPLES          69 83 71 80 / - 30 60 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...17/ERA...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD