FXUS65 KBYZ 262354
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
454 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO EXPIRE WINTER STORM WARNING TO REFLECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WINDS DECREASING AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING. FRIEDERS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING
COLD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE EAST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THESE AREAS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THINK TEMPS THERE WILL
DROP PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SOME DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY COOL GIVEN THE NEW SNOW. SOLUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

TUESDAY SEES A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE A STRONG CONTRIBUTOR TO TEMPERATURES AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ALOFT. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE INCREASED SNOW COVER TO HAVE AN IMPACT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S...AND POSSIBLY TEENS ACROSS THE EAST. WEDNESDAY A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CAUSES THE
FLOW TO BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC WITH WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER
ARCTIC REACHING THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY AND GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A UPSLOPING BAND INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
THE ARCTIC. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. DID DROP
TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC AND
SUSPECT THE TREND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING TOWARDS
MONTANA. ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRAINAGES AND THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
MIXING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY AND BEYOND THOUGH COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. BHK IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAMPBELL/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/028 008/032 013/031 014/025 009/019 004/028 012/035
    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    23/S    21/B    21/B
LVM 005/031 011/034 015/031 016/027 013/025 016/029 013/033
    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    24/S    22/S    22/S
HDN 903/023 000/030 005/031 007/026 003/022 901/026 008/034
    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    23/S    11/B    11/B
MLS 908/019 902/022 004/025 005/018 901/013 901/017 004/026
    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 904/021 901/025 004/029 006/022 901/018 903/018 004/028
    30/U    00/B    01/B    12/S    22/S    21/B    21/B
BHK 907/018 904/022 004/021 002/018 908/010 907/014 902/021
    80/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    22/S    11/B    21/B
SHR 003/028 004/028 003/032 006/028 004/022 006/026 006/032
    10/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    23/S    21/B    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS