FXUS63 KDLH 261008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON COLD FRONT THAT WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA TODAY. AT 4 AM THE FRONT HAD REACHED A LINE FROM
HINCKLEY...TO HAYWARD AND PARK FALLS. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH OVER THE IRON RANGE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 20S WITH WDSPRD SN. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A ZONE OF DECENT
FORCING TODAY...AND CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SN
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE, NEW SN AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1-2 INCHES. DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE MN ZONES TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WSW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS 
FRONT WILL BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT IT WILL 
EFFECTIVELY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO A MORE NORMAL LEVEL FOR THIS 
TIME OF YEAR. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C AT BRD BY 00Z TUESDAY 
AND -17C IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL 
ALREADY MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AT H85 BY 12Z TUESDAY AS A FLATTENING 
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT 
SNOW TO THE REGION. THE GFS TRIES TO PHASE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN 
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...BUT THE ECMWF TRIES TO MAINTAIN MORE 
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE. GRADUALLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD 
STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING A SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL 
IT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND NEAR OR 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  15  25   9 /  90  50  40  10 
INL  30  21  26   4 /  90  50  40  10 
BRD  30  16  24   6 /  90  50  30  10 
HYR  28   9  27  12 /  40  50  40  20 
ASX  28  13  27  15 /  70  50  50  40 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

GRANING/DAP