FXUS63 KFGF 050831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD/TRENDS AND 
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RULING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER 
KEEPING ANY STORM TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF FA.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL 
DAKOTAS TODAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS THROUGH FA. COLUMN 
RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN RIDGE AXIS SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH WITH 
PASSAGE OF FEATURE. FARTHER EAST CLOUD COVER MORE VARIABLE AND WITH 
FLURRIES CONTINUING MAY NEED TO STICK SOME MENTION ACROSS FAR EAST 
DURING THE AM. TEMPERATURES HAVE TANKED IN VCNTY OF SKC WITHIN RIDGE 
AXIS AND NOT HANDLED WELL BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES 
STRUGGLED TO CLIMB ABOVE 10 ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW FA UNDER DEEPER 
SNOW COVER. EXPECT SAME TO HAPPEN TODAY AND WILL BE UNDERCUTTING 
GUIDANCE MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE. MID LEVEL SHEAR 
AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD 
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CAN 
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER 
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM BIAS TO GUIDANCE WILL 
GO ON LOW END.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO FA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 
GRADUAL COOLING COLUMN. THIS WILL KEEP FA DRY BUT WELL BLO AVERAGE 
WITH TEMPERATURES. 

GETTING INTO LONGER RANGE MAIN STORM TRACK STILL SOUTH OF FA TUE/WED 
BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS SE HALF OF FA WHICH STILL COULD BE 
ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW SHIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO FAR NE FA INCLUDING BJI 
AND POSSIBLY TVF TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD 
TONIGHT HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.    

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
VOELKER