FXUS64 KOUN 251759
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...A WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 20 UTC...THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
REACHED ALL TAF SITES. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL THE
EVENING STABLE LAYER BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WE THEN EXPECT RAPID
DECOUPLING AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW IN NUMBER...AND NO CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTER QUIET
WEATHER ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INCORPORATING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...WE HAVE EVALUATED THE NUMBER OF NOVEMBER FREEZES
RECORDED AT MOST OBSERVING SITES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM GRANT COUNTY TO GRADY COUNTY...TO COMANCHE...TILLMAN...
WILBARGER...AND BAYLOR...INCLUSIVE OF THOSE COUNTIES. FARTHER
EAST...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED ONE OR TWO LIGHT
FREEZES...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 DEGREES...AND THE AVAILABLE
SITES IN SOME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED A
FREEZE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THESE AREAS FOR FROST AND
FREEZE PRODUCTS.
TONIGHT PRESENTS ANOTHER CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. A FRONT
WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. CYCLONIC
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN SOME HEALTHY WIND SPEEDS
AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
THIS RAISES SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW STRONGLY THE SURFACE LAYER
WILL DECOUPLE FROM THESE WINDS. A MORE COUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WOULD SUPPORT THE WARMER NUMBERS FROM THE MAV MOS.
LATELY...HOWEVER...THE MET MOS HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE
MAV. GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS AND LENGTHY NIGHT /GIVING MORE TIME
TO DECOUPLE/ WE ARE INCLINED TO ONCE AGAIN UNDERCUT MAV BY 4 TO 7
DEGREES. THE RESULT IS A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AREAS AVAILABLE FOR FREEZE AND FROST
PRODUCTS WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY LIGHT FREEZES BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THAT THE NEXT COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES...IT WILL BE DECEMBER ON THE CALENDAR...AND WELL PAST THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE DATE FOR FIRST FREEZE. WE MAY THEN CHOOSE
TO HANDLE ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS...AND ASSUME THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 29 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 32 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 55 24 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 28 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ008-013-019-020-025-026-028>031-039-040-044-045.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ032-041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ086-089-090.
&&
$$
03/22/22
BURKE
